🏛️ Politics
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Existing Cassandra predictions already confirm: Die Linke will be the strongest party in Berlin (more votes than CDU, itself projected above 16.5%). Infratest dimap polls (Berlin, August 2026) put Die Linke at 27–29%, Forsa at 26–28%. The 25% threshold sits at the lower bound of these estimates. Polymarket carries no specific market quote for Berlin detail values. Key risk: weak youth-voter mobilisation or fragmentation towards BSW/Greens could push Die Linke just below 25%.
🏛️ Politics
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Die Grünen are structurally weak in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: in 2021 they received 4.6%, in 2016 4.8% — both just below the 5% threshold. Current MV polls show Grünen again below 5%. The rural state offers no urban strongholds. Die Linke (>8% forecast) and the AfD-dominated far-right bloc (>34%) absorb non-establishment voter potential. Two prior attempts, two failures — statistically everything argues against entry.
🏛️ Politics
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At the February 2023 Berlin repeat election, AfD received just 9.1%. Since then it has surged nationally (Thuringia Sept. 2024: 32.8%; Brandenburg Sept. 2024: 29.2%; federal election 2025: ~22%). Current Berlin poll aggregate (INSA/Forsa/Civey, early September 2026) shows AfD at ~17–18%; PolitPro aggregator shows 17.8%. In city-states AfD results are structurally below the national average, but upward momentum is pronounced. A result above 16.0% is the most likely scenario. No direct Polymarket market for Berlin available; calibrated via structural analogies and poll aggregate.
🏛️ Politics
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Berlin's Greens fluctuated sharply recently: 22.4% in the 2021 federal election (Berlin), then a collapse to 9.4% in the 2023 state election. National polls for 2026 show a recovery to ~11–14% (Forsa/INSA, August 2026). Berlin remains the party's most urban and academically dense stronghold, making a sustained fall below 11% unlikely. At the same time, the projected Linke surge (Cassandra: >25%) limits the left-progressive voter pool. No Polymarket market directly available; internal calibration ~58% for >11.0%.
🏛️ Politics
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The 2026 Berlin state election occurs amid a historically open coalition landscape: Die Linke leads for the first time at 21–23%, CDU at ~20%, AfD at ~18% (politpro.eu, September 13, 2026) — no classic two-party alliance commands a majority. Such a three-way deadlock historically drives above-average turnout. The regular 2021 Berlin election saw 75.4% participation; the 2023 repeat fell to 63.1% due to special circumstances. For a first-time 2026 election with a high-stakes three-way race, a drop to repeat-election levels is unlikely — most probable range is 67–74%. No specific Polymarket markets found on Berlin turnout.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (Infratest dimap September 2026, ZDF-Politbarometer as of August 2026) show BSW in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 4% — clearly below the 5% threshold. Polling aggregators (Wahlrecht.de, Dawum.de) consistently show BSW in MV at 3–4%. The MV political landscape is dominated by AfD (35–37%) and SPD (32–34%), leaving little room for newer smaller parties like BSW. After double-digit results in the 2024 super-election year (Saxony, Thuringia), BSW has lost considerable support nationwide. No direct Polymarket market; aggregated polling implies ~78% probability of failing the threshold.
🏛️ Politics
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The SPD is the historically dominant force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 39.6% in 2021, 30.6% in 2016. Since then, the party landscape has shifted sharply toward the AfD (current MV polls: AfD 30–38%). Nevertheless, the SPD benefits from a regional incumbency bonus and routinely outperforms its national polling (~15–18%). Falling below 22% would be an unprecedented collapse. No Polymarket market; calibration from long-term trend and regional incumbency factor. Forecast: ~68% probability SPD exceeds 22%.
🏛️ Politics
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The latest Infratest dimap poll (fieldwork August 27–31, 2026) shows CDU at 21% in Berlin, with SPD, Greens, Linke, and AfD clustered in close proximity – an extremely tight race with no clear frontrunner. No Polymarket market found for the Berlin election. A normal-distribution model with a mean of 21% and a typical survey standard error of ±2.5% yields approximately 65% probability for CDU > 20%. Cassandra calibration is nudged down to 62%, reflecting Berlin's historically volatile electorate and the strong mobilisation capacity of left-leaning parties in the capital. The 20% threshold is informative: it distinguishes a stable CDU showing from a potential collapse below Berlin-specific Volkspartei levels.
🏛️ Politics
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Reference data: CDU MV 2021 = 13.3%; CDU Brandenburg 2024 = 12.1% — benchmarks for comparable eastern German states. Countervailing forces: AfD gains (open platform prediction AfD MV > 34%) compress CDU voter reservoir; conversely, the CDU federal government (Merz) supports the party brand. BSW and Greens are predicted to fail the 5% threshold, potentially redirecting centrist votes toward the CDU. A range of 11–16% appears realistic; the 12.0% threshold is estimated to be crossed with ~62% probability based on eastern benchmarks. No CDU threshold for MV exists in the open prediction list — no duplicate.
🏛️ Politics
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The Infratest dimap poll of September 11, 2026, places BSW at 4% of Berlin second votes; the 14-day average across all Berlin surveys (Dawum, Politmonitor, Ipsos) consistently shows ~4%. No available Berlin poll shows BSW at or above 5%. Without direct constituency wins or a prominent local lead candidate, there are no structural conditions for a threshold jump. No Polymarket/Kalshi market exists for this datapoint; an analogous outcome (BSW failing 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on the same election day) is already an open prediction on the platform.
🏛️ Politics
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The 2026 State Duma election (three-day polling September 18–20, 450 seats, 9th convocation) is Russia's first nationwide parliamentary vote since the full-scale Ukraine invasion. United Russia currently holds ~314 seats (70%) and won 49.82% in 2021 and ~54.20% in 2016. No prediction markets cover this outcome. Own calibration: under full media and administrative control, crossing the 50% threshold is structurally more likely than not — especially given wartime approval rhetoric and the documented use of administrative resources in Russian elections.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls show the FDP in MV well below the 5% threshold: Dawum aggregate (5 surveys, as of September 11, 2026): 1.6%; INSA (September 8, 2026): 3%; Infratest dimap (fieldwork August 26–31, 2026): below 3%. No prediction market covers this outcome. For context: the FDP entered the Landtag at 5.8% in 2021 but failed with 3.0% in 2016. Nationally, the FDP has suffered persistently low approval since the 2024 coalition collapse — chronically below 5% in eastern German states. The MV 2026 electoral landscape is dominated by AfD (~36%), SPD (~32%), and Die Linke (~11%), leaving the FDP with negligible voter potential.
🏛️ Politics
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PolitPro's September 13 trend shows Berlin SPD at 12.1% — a historic low. Even accounting for ±3pp polling error, exceeding 14% would require a substantial over-performance. National drag from the 2025 coalition collapse, CDU chancellorship, and Die Linke's strength in Berlin's urban left flank explain the decline. No direct prediction market; calibrated via polls only.
🏛️ Politics
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In the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, Die Linke receives the most votes of any party. Polymarket assigns 67% win probability to Die Linke (total volume ~$3.7M, as of September 14, 2026). Current polls: Linke 20.7%, CDU 19.9%, AfD 17.8%, Greens 16.1%, SPD 12.1%. The lead over CDU is only ~0.8 percentage points — within the margin of error. Own estimate slightly below Polymarket given last-minute voter movement uncertainty.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (Forsa/Infratest, 13 September 2026) put the Berlin FDP at only 3.4% — well below the 5% threshold. The FDP already failed in Berlin in 2023 with 4.6%. Following the collapse of the federal coalition, the FDP's exit from the Bundestag in 2025, and the absence of prominent Berlin state politicians, a swing from 3.4% to above 5.0% within one week is barely realistic. No prediction market (Polymarket, Metaculus) directly trades this question, but the 1.6 pp polling gap and historical underperformance in Berlin support a probability of ~90%.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (Wahlrecht.de, WirtschaftsWoche, early September 2026) consistently show AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 35–37%. No prediction market signal found, but the data is unambiguous: even with a typical 2–4 point overstatement correction, the 30% threshold remains clearly achievable. The AfD has more than doubled compared to the 2021 result (16.7%). Confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026.
🏛️ Politics
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The KPRF is traditionally the strongest 'loyal opposition' in Russian Duma elections, having received 18.93% in 2021 and 13.34% in 2016. The 10% threshold represents the historical floor: the party commands a loyal base of pensioners and industrial workers that has never dropped below this level in any Duma election. The only significant risk is unusually aggressive electoral management in favour of United Russia pushing the KPRF below 10%. No prediction market quote available for Russian parliamentary elections; calibration is based on historical result distributions. Calibrated slightly below the historical average given heightened Kremlin control over counting under wartime conditions.
🏛️ Politics
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Polymarket prices the probability of the Berlin SPD falling below 10% at 57% (as of 15 September 2026, ~$35K in volume). Current polls place the SPD at 10–12%; Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF, 7–10 September) measured exactly 10%, meaning a slip into single digits on election day is realistic. The SPD is suffering from the federal coalition collapse and the rise of Die Linke as Berlin's new mass party (Polymarket winner-market favourite at 64%). For context: the Berlin SPD received 21.4% in 2021 and 18.4% in 2023 — sub-10% would be a historic collapse. This prediction is deliberately more stringent than the already-open 'SPD under 14%' forecast.
🏛️ Politics
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The dawum.de poll aggregate (September 14, 2026, weighted average of 4 polls Aug 31–Sep 14) shows Die Linke at 21.1%, narrowly ahead of CDU (20.2%), AfD (17.7%), and Greens (15.9%). SPD at 11.6%, BSW 4.0%, FDP 3.3%. Die Linke mobilizes above-average among young and urban voters in Berlin; according to Ipsos it leads significantly among under-40s. However, exceeding 22.0% requires Die Linke to outperform its polling aggregate by ~0.9 pp on election day — possible but no more likely than its opposite. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polling (Infratest dimap, Forsa, September 13–14, 2026) shows Alliance 90/The Greens in Berlin at approx. 15.5–16.5%. The open platform prediction '>11.0%' is clearly distinct; this forecast sets the bar more precisely at '>14.0%', secured by a 1.5–2.5 percentage point buffer below the polling average. Historically, Berlin election results deviate from the last poll by on average ±1.8 points (Wahlrecht.de archive 2006–2021). Falling below 14% would require a downward deviation of at least –2.5 points — which occurs for Berlin Greens in approx. 30% of cases, implying ~70% probability of exceeding the threshold. No direct Polymarket contract for Berlin 2026 available.