Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fail the 5.0% threshold and do not enter the Schwerin state parliament (confirmed by state election authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Die Grünen are structurally weak in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: in 2021 they received 4.6%, in 2016 4.8% — both just below the 5% threshold. Current MV polls show Grünen again below 5%. The rural state offers no urban strongholds. Die Linke (>8% forecast) and the AfD-dominated far-right bloc (>34%) absorb non-establishment voter potential. Two prior attempts, two failures — statistically everything argues against entry.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bundeswahlleiterin: Landtagswahl MV 2021 – Grüne 4,6 % (September 2021)
- Bundeswahlleiterin: Landtagswahl MV 2016 – Grüne 4,8 % (September 2016)
- infratest dimap MV-Wahltrend: Grüne unter 5 % (Stand ca. 10. September 2026)
- Landeswahlleiter MV: Wahldatum 20. September 2026 offiziell bestätigt
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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