🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fail the 5.0% threshold and do not enter the Schwerin state parliament (confirmed by state election authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

76%

Die Grünen are structurally weak in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: in 2021 they received 4.6%, in 2016 4.8% — both just below the 5% threshold. Current MV polls show Grünen again below 5%. The rural state offers no urban strongholds. Die Linke (>8% forecast) and the AfD-dominated far-right bloc (>34%) absorb non-establishment voter potential. Two prior attempts, two failures — statistically everything argues against entry.

Data basis for this prediction

Bundeswahlleiterin: Landtagswahl MV 2021 – Grüne 4,6 % (September 2021)
Bundeswahlleiterin: Landtagswahl MV 2016 – Grüne 4,8 % (September 2016)
infratest dimap MV-Wahltrend: Grüne unter 5 % (Stand ca. 10. September 2026)
Landeswahlleiter MV: Wahldatum 20. September 2026 offiziell bestätigt

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage ist nicht eingetreten. Laut den Wahlergebnissen zur Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 erhielten Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 5,7 % der Stimmen und zogen mit 5 Sitzen (von 71) in den Schweriner Landtag ein – sie überwanden die 5-%-Sperrklausel deutlich. Ironischerweise scheiterte nicht die Grünen, sondern die CDU an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde (4,9 %). Quellen: wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026, bpb.de (Hintergrund aktuell zur Wahl 2026).

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