🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): SPD wins more than 22.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

68%

The SPD is the historically dominant force in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 39.6% in 2021, 30.6% in 2016. Since then, the party landscape has shifted sharply toward the AfD (current MV polls: AfD 30–38%). Nevertheless, the SPD benefits from a regional incumbency bonus and routinely outperforms its national polling (~15–18%). Falling below 22% would be an unprecedented collapse. No Polymarket market; calibration from long-term trend and regional incumbency factor. Forecast: ~68% probability SPD exceeds 22%.

Data basis for this prediction

MV Landtagswahl 2021: SPD 39,6 % (Bundeswahlleiter.de, endgültiges Ergebnis)
MV Landtagswahl 2016: SPD 30,6 % (Bundeswahlleiter.de, endgültiges Ergebnis)
MV-Wahlumfragen 2026: AfD 30–38 %, SPD deutlich abgeschlagen vs 2021 (infratest dimap / INSA, Stand August–September 2026)
Nationale SPD-Umfragen 2026: ~15–18 % (Politpro.eu, Stand 13.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters MV 35,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 22,0 %. Damit ist die Vorhersage klar eingetreten. Die AfD wurde mit 38,2 % erstmals stärkste Kraft im Land. Quellen: landtag-mv.de (vorläufiges amtliches Endergebnis), wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia.

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