State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 20, 2026): BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5.0% threshold and does not enter the Schwerin state parliament (confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Infratest dimap September 2026, ZDF-Politbarometer as of August 2026) show BSW in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 4% — clearly below the 5% threshold. Polling aggregators (Wahlrecht.de, Dawum.de) consistently show BSW in MV at 3–4%. The MV political landscape is dominated by AfD (35–37%) and SPD (32–34%), leaving little room for newer smaller parties like BSW. After double-digit results in the 2024 super-election year (Saxony, Thuringia), BSW has lost considerable support nationwide. No direct Polymarket market; aggregated polling implies ~78% probability of failing the threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap Ländertrend MV September 2026: BSW 4 %, SPD 32 %, AfD 35 % – infratest-dimap.de
- ZDF-Politbarometer / WiWo.de: AfD 37 %, SPD 34 %, BSW unter 5 % (Stand August/September 2026)
- Dawum.de Polling-Aggregator MV: BSW 3–4 % (Stand September 2026)
- Wahlrecht.de Sonntagsfrage MV: BSW konsistent unter 5 % seit Anfang 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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