🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (Sep 20, 2026): Die Linke wins more than 22.0% of the vote (confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by Sep 21)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

40%

The dawum.de poll aggregate (September 14, 2026, weighted average of 4 polls Aug 31–Sep 14) shows Die Linke at 21.1%, narrowly ahead of CDU (20.2%), AfD (17.7%), and Greens (15.9%). SPD at 11.6%, BSW 4.0%, FDP 3.3%. Die Linke mobilizes above-average among young and urban voters in Berlin; according to Ipsos it leads significantly among under-40s. However, exceeding 22.0% requires Die Linke to outperform its polling aggregate by ~0.9 pp on election day — possible but no more likely than its opposite. No Polymarket or Kalshi market found for this event.

Data basis for this prediction

dawum.de Wahlumfragen-Aggregat Berlin, 14.09.2026: Linke 21,1 %, CDU 20,2 %, AfD 17,7 %
Polling-Zeitraum: 31. Aug.–14. Sep. 2026 (4 Umfragen, dawum.de)
Ipsos: Die Linke führt bei Unter-40-Jährigen deutlich (ipsos.com/de-de, Wahl Berlin 2026)
Wikipedia: Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die Linke erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de, Wikipedia, Al Jazeera, Brussels Signal u.a.) 25,7 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich mehr als die Schwelle von 22,0 %. Die Partei wurde damit stärkste Kraft und übertraf ihr Polling-Aggregat von 21,1 % (Stand 14. Sep.) um rund 4,6 Prozentpunkte. Die Vorhersage trat ein.

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