Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (September 20, 2026): FDP Falls Below 5.0% Threshold and Fails to Enter the Schwerin Landtag
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls show the FDP in MV well below the 5% threshold: Dawum aggregate (5 surveys, as of September 11, 2026): 1.6%; INSA (September 8, 2026): 3%; Infratest dimap (fieldwork August 26–31, 2026): below 3%. No prediction market covers this outcome. For context: the FDP entered the Landtag at 5.8% in 2021 but failed with 3.0% in 2016. Nationally, the FDP has suffered persistently low approval since the 2024 coalition collapse — chronically below 5% in eastern German states. The MV 2026 electoral landscape is dominated by AfD (~36%), SPD (~32%), and Die Linke (~11%), leaving the FDP with negligible voter potential.
Data basis for this prediction
- Dawum.de MV-Wahltrend: FDP 1,6 % (Aggregat aus 5 Umfragen, Stand 11.09.2026, dawum.de/Mecklenburg-Vorpommern/)
- INSA MV-Umfrage: FDP 3 % (8. September 2026)
- Infratest dimap MV-Ländertrend: FDP unter 3 % (Feldphase 26.–31. August 2026, infratest-dimap.de)
- MV-Landtagswahl 2021: FDP 5,8 % – knapper Einzug (Landeswahlleiter MV, 26.09.2021)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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