🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (September 20, 2026): FDP Falls Below 5.0% Threshold and Fails to Enter the Schwerin Landtag

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

97%

Current polls show the FDP in MV well below the 5% threshold: Dawum aggregate (5 surveys, as of September 11, 2026): 1.6%; INSA (September 8, 2026): 3%; Infratest dimap (fieldwork August 26–31, 2026): below 3%. No prediction market covers this outcome. For context: the FDP entered the Landtag at 5.8% in 2021 but failed with 3.0% in 2016. Nationally, the FDP has suffered persistently low approval since the 2024 coalition collapse — chronically below 5% in eastern German states. The MV 2026 electoral landscape is dominated by AfD (~36%), SPD (~32%), and Die Linke (~11%), leaving the FDP with negligible voter potential.

Data basis for this prediction

Dawum.de MV-Wahltrend: FDP 1,6 % (Aggregat aus 5 Umfragen, Stand 11.09.2026, dawum.de/Mecklenburg-Vorpommern/)
INSA MV-Umfrage: FDP 3 % (8. September 2026)
Infratest dimap MV-Ländertrend: FDP unter 3 % (Feldphase 26.–31. August 2026, infratest-dimap.de)
MV-Landtagswahl 2021: FDP 5,8 % – knapper Einzug (Landeswahlleiter MV, 26.09.2021)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist vollständig eingetreten. Laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vom 20. September 2026 erzielte die FDP nur 1,0 % der Zweitstimmen – weit unterhalb der 5-%-Sperrklausel und sogar noch deutlich unter den Umfragewerten (Dawum: 1,6 %; INSA: 3 %). Die FDP zog damit nicht in den Schweriner Landtag ein. Auch die CDU (4,9 %) verpasste den Einzug; ins Parlament zogen AfD (38,2 %), SPD (35,5 %), Linke (6,5 %) und Grüne (5,7 %) ein. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), Wikipedia (de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026), bpb.de.

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