🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Russian State Duma Election (20 September 2026): Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) receives more than 10.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Russia's Central Election Commission or Reuters by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

68%

The KPRF is traditionally the strongest 'loyal opposition' in Russian Duma elections, having received 18.93% in 2021 and 13.34% in 2016. The 10% threshold represents the historical floor: the party commands a loyal base of pensioners and industrial workers that has never dropped below this level in any Duma election. The only significant risk is unusually aggressive electoral management in favour of United Russia pushing the KPRF below 10%. No prediction market quote available for Russian parliamentary elections; calibration is based on historical result distributions. Calibrated slightly below the historical average given heightened Kremlin control over counting under wartime conditions.

Data basis for this prediction

KPRF Staatsduma-Ergebnis 2021: 18,93 % (Zentralwahlkommission Russland / Wikipedia, 2021)
KPRF Staatsduma-Ergebnis 2016: 13,34 % (Zentralwahlkommission Russland, 2016)
Russische Staatsduma-Wahl terminiert auf 20.09.2026 (Reuters / val.se, Stand 14.09.2026)
Bestehende Vorhersage: Einiges Russland >50 % (konsistent; KPRF als Haupt-Opposition verbleibt im zweistelligen Bereich)

Verdict: Hit

Die KPRF erzielte bei der Staatsduma-Wahl vom 18.–20. September 2026 ca. 13,76–13,81 % der Parteilistenstimmen und belegte damit Platz 2 hinter Einiges Russland (~57,8 %). Der Schwellenwert von 10 % wurde deutlich überschritten. Quellen: Meduza (21.09.2026), Wikipedia-Artikel zur Wahl 2026, Kommersant (ЦИК-Ergebnisse), КПРФ-eigene Seite zu den Wahlergebnissen.

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