🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke receives the most votes and becomes the strongest party

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

62%

In the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, Die Linke receives the most votes of any party. Polymarket assigns 67% win probability to Die Linke (total volume ~$3.7M, as of September 14, 2026). Current polls: Linke 20.7%, CDU 19.9%, AfD 17.8%, Greens 16.1%, SPD 12.1%. The lead over CDU is only ~0.8 percentage points — within the margin of error. Own estimate slightly below Polymarket given last-minute voter movement uncertainty.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Die Linke gewinnt Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl — 67 % (Stand 14.09.2026, Vol. ~3,7 Mio. USD)
Polymarket: Gesamtpool Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026 — CDU 22 %, AfD 12,7 % (Stand 14.09.2026)
PolitPro / Wikipedia Umfrageschnitt Berlin, 14.09.2026: Linke 20,7 %, CDU 19,9 %, AfD 17,8 %, Grüne 16,1 %
Landeswahlleiter Berlin: Wahltermin 20.09.2026 (offizielle Quelle)

Verdict: Hit

Die Linke wurde bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 tatsächlich stärkste Kraft mit 25,7 % der Stimmen – ein Plus von +13,5 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2023. Dahinter folgten CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %), Grüne (14,3 %) und SPD (12,1 %). Allerdings fiel der Sieg deutlich klarer aus als die engen Umfragen (Linke ~20,7 %, CDU ~19,9 %) suggeriert hatten: Der tatsächliche Vorsprung auf die CDU betrug rund 6,9 Prozentpunkte statt der prognostizierten ~0,8 Punkte. Die Vorhersage der Parteistärke (stärkste Partei) ist eingetreten. Quellen: Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026', bpb.de 'Die Linke wird erstmals stärkste Kraft', Al Jazeera 'Far left wins Berlin state election' (20.09.2026).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026