Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) Fails the 5% Threshold and Does Not Enter the Berlin Chamber of Deputies (confirmed via Berlin Electoral Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
The Infratest dimap poll of September 11, 2026, places BSW at 4% of Berlin second votes; the 14-day average across all Berlin surveys (Dawum, Politmonitor, Ipsos) consistently shows ~4%. No available Berlin poll shows BSW at or above 5%. Without direct constituency wins or a prominent local lead candidate, there are no structural conditions for a threshold jump. No Polymarket/Kalshi market exists for this datapoint; an analogous outcome (BSW failing 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on the same election day) is already an open prediction on the platform.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap Umfrage Berlin, 11. Sep. 2026: BSW 4 % (t-online.de, Sep. 2026)
- 14-Tage-Schnitt Berliner Wahlumfragen: CDU 20 %, Linke 19,3 %, AfD/Grüne je 18 %, SPD 11 %, BSW ~4 % (dawum.de / Politmonitor, Sep. 2026)
- Ipsos-Umfrage Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026: SPD 11 %, BSW ~4 % (Ipsos, Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show the FDP in MV well below the 5% threshold: Dawum aggregate (5 surveys, as of September 11, 2026): 1.6%; INSA (September 8, 2026): 3%; Infratest dimap (fieldwork August 26–31, 2026): below 3%. No prediction market covers this outcome. For context: the FDP entered the Landtag at 5.8% in 2021 but failed with 3.0% in 2016. Nationally, the FDP has suffered persistently low approval since the 2024 coalition collapse — chronically below 5% in eastern German states. The MV 2026 electoral landscape is dominated by AfD (~36%), SPD (~32%), and Die Linke (~11%), leaving the FDP with negligible voter potential.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The 2026 State Duma election (three-day polling September 18–20, 450 seats, 9th convocation) is Russia's first nationwide parliamentary vote since the full-scale Ukraine invasion. United Russia currently holds ~314 seats (70%) and won 49.82% in 2021 and ~54.20% in 2016. No prediction markets cover this outcome. Own calibration: under full media and administrative control, crossing the 50% threshold is structurally more likely than not — especially given wartime approval rhetoric and the documented use of administrative resources in Russian elections.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Yesh Atid won approximately 14.1% of votes (24 of 120 seats) in the November 2022 Knesset election. As the centrist-liberal opposition party, Yesh Atid under Lapid remains the strongest counterpart to the Netanyahu coalition. The open Cassandra forecast implies Netanyahu's right-wing bloc falls below 61 seats — requiring a strengthened, unified opposition from which Yesh Atid disproportionately benefits. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market for Yesh Atid vote share. Estimate based on the 2022 comparison result and structural opposition dynamics.