🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) Fails the 5% Threshold and Does Not Enter the Berlin Chamber of Deputies (confirmed via Berlin Electoral Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

78%

The Infratest dimap poll of September 11, 2026, places BSW at 4% of Berlin second votes; the 14-day average across all Berlin surveys (Dawum, Politmonitor, Ipsos) consistently shows ~4%. No available Berlin poll shows BSW at or above 5%. Without direct constituency wins or a prominent local lead candidate, there are no structural conditions for a threshold jump. No Polymarket/Kalshi market exists for this datapoint; an analogous outcome (BSW failing 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on the same election day) is already an open prediction on the platform.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap Umfrage Berlin, 11. Sep. 2026: BSW 4 % (t-online.de, Sep. 2026)
14-Tage-Schnitt Berliner Wahlumfragen: CDU 20 %, Linke 19,3 %, AfD/Grüne je 18 %, SPD 11 %, BSW ~4 % (dawum.de / Politmonitor, Sep. 2026)
Ipsos-Umfrage Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026: SPD 11 %, BSW ~4 % (Ipsos, Sep. 2026)

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, KAS-Wahlanalyse, Al Jazeera, politpro.eu) 4,7 % der Zweitstimmen und scheiterte damit klar an der 5-%-Sperrklausel. Ein Einzug ins Abgeordnetenhaus fand nicht statt. Die Vorhersage (≤ 5 %, kein Einzug) ist vollständig eingetreten; der tatsächliche Wert lag sogar 0,3 Punkte unter dem prognostizierten Umfragewert von ~4 %. Quellen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026 | https://www.kas.de/de/monitor-wahl-und-sozialforschung/detail/-/content/wahlanalyse-der-abgeordnetenhauswahl-in-berlin-am-20-september-2026 | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/two-german-states-go-to-the-polls-after-far-right-gains

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