State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (20 September 2026): AfD receives more than 30.0% of votes cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls (Wahlrecht.de, WirtschaftsWoche, early September 2026) consistently show AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 35–37%. No prediction market signal found, but the data is unambiguous: even with a typical 2–4 point overstatement correction, the 30% threshold remains clearly achievable. The AfD has more than doubled compared to the 2021 result (16.7%). Confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wahlrecht.de/Umfragen MV, Stand: Anfang September 2026: AfD 35–37 %
- WirtschaftsWoche MV-Wahlanalyse, 10. September 2026: AfD führt deutlich, SPD holt auf
- Wikipedia – 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election: AfD 2021: 16,7 %; aktuell ~36 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (Forsa/Infratest, 13 September 2026) put the Berlin FDP at only 3.4% — well below the 5% threshold. The FDP already failed in Berlin in 2023 with 4.6%. Following the collapse of the federal coalition, the FDP's exit from the Bundestag in 2025, and the absence of prominent Berlin state politicians, a swing from 3.4% to above 5.0% within one week is barely realistic. No prediction market (Polymarket, Metaculus) directly trades this question, but the 1.6 pp polling gap and historical underperformance in Berlin support a probability of ~90%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, Die Linke receives the most votes of any party. Polymarket assigns 67% win probability to Die Linke (total volume ~$3.7M, as of September 14, 2026). Current polls: Linke 20.7%, CDU 19.9%, AfD 17.8%, Greens 16.1%, SPD 12.1%. The lead over CDU is only ~0.8 percentage points — within the margin of error. Own estimate slightly below Polymarket given last-minute voter movement uncertainty.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
PolitPro's September 13 trend shows Berlin SPD at 12.1% — a historic low. Even accounting for ±3pp polling error, exceeding 14% would require a substantial over-performance. National drag from the 2025 coalition collapse, CDU chancellorship, and Die Linke's strength in Berlin's urban left flank explain the decline. No direct prediction market; calibrated via polls only.