🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Russian State Duma Election (September 20, 2026): United Russia Wins More Than 50.0% of Votes Cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

The 2026 State Duma election (three-day polling September 18–20, 450 seats, 9th convocation) is Russia's first nationwide parliamentary vote since the full-scale Ukraine invasion. United Russia currently holds ~314 seats (70%) and won 49.82% in 2021 and ~54.20% in 2016. No prediction markets cover this outcome. Own calibration: under full media and administrative control, crossing the 50% threshold is structurally more likely than not — especially given wartime approval rhetoric and the documented use of administrative resources in Russian elections.

Data basis for this prediction

2026 Russian legislative election: Dreitagswahl 18.–20. September bestätigt (Wikipedia/EPDE, September 2026)
Duma-Wahl 2021: Einiges Russland 49,82 % – Supermehrheit 314 Sitze (CIK, 19.09.2021)
Duma-Wahl 2016: Einiges Russland 54,20 % (CIK, 18.09.2016)
GlobalSecurity.org: United Russia hält ~70 % der Sitze, Supermehrheit bei Wahl 2026 erwartet (Stand 14.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Einiges Russland erzielte bei der Staatsduma-Wahl vom 18.–20. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen der Zentralen Wahlkommission ca. 57,83–57,87 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – deutlich über der vorhergesagten 50-%-Marke. Das Ergebnis war damit sogar rund 8 Prozentpunkte höher als 2021 (49,82 %). Die Partei sicherte sich eine verfassungsgebende Mehrheit von 355 der 450 Sitze. Quellen: Kommersant (https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/8971164), Outlook India (https://www.outlookindia.com/international/russia-election-results-2026-putins-united-russia-leads-with-nearly-58-as-duma-votes-counted), Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/russia-election-results-show-putins-party-winning-what-we-know).

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