Russian State Duma Election (September 20, 2026): United Russia Wins More Than 50.0% of Votes Cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The 2026 State Duma election (three-day polling September 18–20, 450 seats, 9th convocation) is Russia's first nationwide parliamentary vote since the full-scale Ukraine invasion. United Russia currently holds ~314 seats (70%) and won 49.82% in 2021 and ~54.20% in 2016. No prediction markets cover this outcome. Own calibration: under full media and administrative control, crossing the 50% threshold is structurally more likely than not — especially given wartime approval rhetoric and the documented use of administrative resources in Russian elections.
Data basis for this prediction
- 2026 Russian legislative election: Dreitagswahl 18.–20. September bestätigt (Wikipedia/EPDE, September 2026)
- Duma-Wahl 2021: Einiges Russland 49,82 % – Supermehrheit 314 Sitze (CIK, 19.09.2021)
- Duma-Wahl 2016: Einiges Russland 54,20 % (CIK, 18.09.2016)
- GlobalSecurity.org: United Russia hält ~70 % der Sitze, Supermehrheit bei Wahl 2026 erwartet (Stand 14.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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