Berlin State Parliament Election (September 20, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 70.0% of eligible voters (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The 2026 Berlin state election occurs amid a historically open coalition landscape: Die Linke leads for the first time at 21–23%, CDU at ~20%, AfD at ~18% (politpro.eu, September 13, 2026) — no classic two-party alliance commands a majority. Such a three-way deadlock historically drives above-average turnout. The regular 2021 Berlin election saw 75.4% participation; the 2023 repeat fell to 63.1% due to special circumstances. For a first-time 2026 election with a high-stakes three-way race, a drop to repeat-election levels is unlikely — most probable range is 67–74%. No specific Polymarket markets found on Berlin turnout.
Data basis for this prediction
- Politpro.eu Berlin-Wahlumfragen: Linke 21–23 %, CDU 20 %, AfD 17–18 % (Stand 13. September 2026)
- Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2021 (Erstausgabe): 75,4 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, Archiv)
- Wahlbeteiligung Berlin-Wiederholungswahl 2023: 63,1 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, Archiv)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election – Polling overview (Stand September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current Israeli polls (JPost, Channel 12/13, Israel2026.co.il, as of September 2026) place the pro-Netanyahu bloc at roughly 52–54 seats — eight to nine short of the 61-seat majority threshold. The opposition (Eisenkot's Yashar, Yesh Atid, Avoda, etc.) also stands at ~53 seats. Polymarket sees Netanyahu as the next PM at only 28–29%, implying a ~71% probability that his bloc falls below 61 seats. Additional headwinds: his ongoing corruption trial, widespread war fatigue, and three new small right-wing parties hovering at the 3.25% electoral threshold — if they fail to enter the Knesset, their votes net-benefit the opposition. This forecast is consistent with the existing open prediction that Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) becomes Prime Minister.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Likud received 24.2% in 2021 and 23.4% (32 seats) in November 2022, consistently polling as Israel's largest single party. Even if the opposition scenario materialises (Eisenkot as PM per open prediction), Likud can still exceed 23% of the vote — Israel's proportional system allows the largest party to sit in opposition. Calibrated on historical vote-share ranges absent current polling data.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Berlin's Greens fluctuated sharply recently: 22.4% in the 2021 federal election (Berlin), then a collapse to 9.4% in the 2023 state election. National polls for 2026 show a recovery to ~11–14% (Forsa/INSA, August 2026). Berlin remains the party's most urban and academically dense stronghold, making a sustained fall below 11% unlikely. At the same time, the projected Linke surge (Cassandra: >25%) limits the left-progressive voter pool. No Polymarket market directly available; internal calibration ~58% for >11.0%.