🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): AfD receives more than 16.0% of valid votes

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

62%

At the February 2023 Berlin repeat election, AfD received just 9.1%. Since then it has surged nationally (Thuringia Sept. 2024: 32.8%; Brandenburg Sept. 2024: 29.2%; federal election 2025: ~22%). Current Berlin poll aggregate (INSA/Forsa/Civey, early September 2026) shows AfD at ~17–18%; PolitPro aggregator shows 17.8%. In city-states AfD results are structurally below the national average, but upward momentum is pronounced. A result above 16.0% is the most likely scenario. No direct Polymarket market for Berlin available; calibrated via structural analogies and poll aggregate.

Data basis for this prediction

DAWUM Berlin / PolitPro: Umfrageaggregat Stand 04.09.2026 – AfD 17,8 % (politpro.eu; dawum.de/Berlin)
Wikipedia 2026 Berlin state election: latest average AfD ~17–18 % (Stand Sept. 2026)
Berliner Wiederholungswahl 12.02.2023: AfD 9,1 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
Bundesweiter AfD-Trend: ~20–22 % Bundestagswahl 2025; Stadtstaaten-Korrekturfaktor ~0,6× → Berlin-Schätzung 12–18 %

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellen Ergebnissen 16,3 % der Zweitstimmen (ein Plus von +7,2 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2023). Damit überschritt sie die Schwelle von 16,0 % klar. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Berlin state election), wahlen-berlin.de, politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026.

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