🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (20 September 2026): CDU receives more than 12.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

Reference data: CDU MV 2021 = 13.3%; CDU Brandenburg 2024 = 12.1% — benchmarks for comparable eastern German states. Countervailing forces: AfD gains (open platform prediction AfD MV > 34%) compress CDU voter reservoir; conversely, the CDU federal government (Merz) supports the party brand. BSW and Greens are predicted to fail the 5% threshold, potentially redirecting centrist votes toward the CDU. A range of 11–16% appears realistic; the 12.0% threshold is estimated to be crossed with ~62% probability based on eastern benchmarks. No CDU threshold for MV exists in the open prediction list — no duplicate.

Data basis for this prediction

MV Landtagswahl 2021: CDU 13,3 % (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, amtliches Endergebnis)
Brandenburg Landtagswahl September 2024: CDU 12,1 % (Landeswahlleiter Brandenburg, amtliches Endergebnis)
Offene MV-Prognosen Cassandra DB (14.09.2026): AfD > 34 %, SPD > 22 %, BSW < 5 %, Grünen < 5 %, Linke > 8 % – kein CDU-Schwellenwert erfasst

Verdict: Miss

Die CDU erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 4,9 % der Stimmen – weit unter der Vorhersageschwelle von 12,0 % und sogar unter der 5-%-Hürde. Damit zog die CDU erstmals in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik nicht in ein Landesparlament ein. Das Ergebnis ist ein historisches Desaster. Gewonnen hat die AfD mit 38,2 %, gefolgt von der SPD mit 35,5 %, der Linken mit 6,5 % und den Grünen mit 5,7 %. Die Vorhersage unterschätzte den AfD-Zuwachs massiv und übersah, dass der AfD-Zulauf nicht nur das CDU-Reservoir komprimierte, sondern ihn beinahe vollständig absorbierte. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), Wikipedia (de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026), wahlrecht.de.

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