🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin House of Representatives election (20 September 2026): FDP receives less than 5.0% of votes cast and fails to enter the Berlin parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

90%

Current polls (Forsa/Infratest, 13 September 2026) put the Berlin FDP at only 3.4% — well below the 5% threshold. The FDP already failed in Berlin in 2023 with 4.6%. Following the collapse of the federal coalition, the FDP's exit from the Bundestag in 2025, and the absence of prominent Berlin state politicians, a swing from 3.4% to above 5.0% within one week is barely realistic. No prediction market (Polymarket, Metaculus) directly trades this question, but the 1.6 pp polling gap and historical underperformance in Berlin support a probability of ~90%.

Data basis for this prediction

Forsa/Infratest dimap Berlin-Umfrage 13.09.2026: FDP 3,4 % (politpro.eu)
Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023: FDP 4,6 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
Bundestagswahl 2025: FDP unter 5 % und aus Bundestag ausgeschieden (Bundeswahlleiter)
Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election – FDP polling trend seit Frühjahr 2026 rückläufig

Verdict: Hit

Die FDP erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 lediglich 2,5 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich unter der 5-%-Sperrklausel – und zog damit nicht in das Abgeordnetenhaus ein (0 Mandate). Das Ergebnis fiel sogar noch schlechter aus als die Umfragewerte von 3,4 % vom 13. September 2026 suggerierten. Die Vorhersage ist vollständig eingetreten. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Berlin state election), politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026, wahlen-berlin.de.

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