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🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Parliament Election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by the Berlin State Electoral Authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
62%

The latest Infratest dimap poll (fieldwork August 27–31, 2026) shows CDU at 21% in Berlin, with SPD, Greens, Linke, and AfD clustered in close proximity – an extremely tight race with no clear frontrunner. No Polymarket market found for the Berlin election. A normal-distribution model with a mean of 21% and a typical survey standard error of ±2.5% yields approximately 65% probability for CDU > 20%. Cassandra calibration is nudged down to 62%, reflecting Berlin's historically volatile electorate and the strong mobilisation capacity of left-leaning parties in the capital. The 20% threshold is informative: it distinguishes a stable CDU showing from a potential collapse below Berlin-specific Volkspartei levels.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Infratest dimap Sonntagsfrage Berlin, Befragung 27.–31. August 2026: CDU 21 % – enges Rennen mit mehreren Parteien zwischen 18 und 21 % (dawum.de/Berlin, Stand 14.9.2026)
  • Ipsos Umfrage Berlin-Wahl 2026: kein eindeutiger Favorit, CDU und Linke in ähnlichen Regionen (ipsos.com/de-de, abgerufen 14.9.2026)
  • Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2023 (Wiederholungswahl): CDU 28,2 % (Historisches Referenzergebnis, Wahlrecht.de)
Verdict: Miss
Die CDU erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut den Ergebnissen (u. a. Wikipedia, politpro.eu, Al Jazeera) 18,8 % der Zweitstimmen – und damit klar unter der Schwelle von 20,0 %. Bei den Erststimmen erreichte die CDU zwar 20,3 %, maßgeblich für das Parteiergebnis sind jedoch die Zweitstimmen. Die Vorhersage scheiterte, weil die CDU massiv Stimmen verlor (–9,5 Prozentpunkte gegenüber 2023), während Die Linke mit 25,7 % stärkste Kraft wurde. Das Mobilisierungsrisiko linker Parteien, das in der Vorhersagebegründung explizit als Abwärtsfaktor genannt wurde, trat also in vollem Umfang ein. Quellen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election, https://politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/two-german-states-go-to-the-polls-after-far-right-gains
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