Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen receive more than 11.0% of the vote (confirmed by Berlin state election commissioner or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Berlin's Greens fluctuated sharply recently: 22.4% in the 2021 federal election (Berlin), then a collapse to 9.4% in the 2023 state election. National polls for 2026 show a recovery to ~11–14% (Forsa/INSA, August 2026). Berlin remains the party's most urban and academically dense stronghold, making a sustained fall below 11% unlikely. At the same time, the projected Linke surge (Cassandra: >25%) limits the left-progressive voter pool. No Polymarket market directly available; internal calibration ~58% for >11.0%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2023: Grüne 9,4 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, 12.02.2023)
- Bundestagswahl 2021 Berlin (Erststimmen): Grüne 22,4 % (Bundeswahlleiter)
- Nationale Grünen-Umfragen Aug. 2026: ~11–14 % (Forsa, INSA, zit. nach wahlrecht.de)
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: Die Linke Berlin >25 % – Konkurrenzeffekt im linken Lager
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls place SD well below their 2022 Riksdag result (20.54%): Indikator (September 4, 2026): 19.3%; Demoskop (August 24, 2026): 18.3%; PolitPro median: 19.3%. Exceeding 19.5% requires the result to land above the polling average. Historically, SD has slightly outperformed polls on election day (late-decider effect to the right of centre). No Polymarket/Kalshi market for this threshold identified; calibrated from PolitPro aggregate and typical polling margins.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
At the February 2023 Berlin repeat election, AfD received just 9.1%. Since then it has surged nationally (Thuringia Sept. 2024: 32.8%; Brandenburg Sept. 2024: 29.2%; federal election 2025: ~22%). Current Berlin poll aggregate (INSA/Forsa/Civey, early September 2026) shows AfD at ~17–18%; PolitPro aggregator shows 17.8%. In city-states AfD results are structurally below the national average, but upward momentum is pronounced. A result above 16.0% is the most likely scenario. No direct Polymarket market for Berlin available; calibrated via structural analogies and poll aggregate.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Eisenkot 54.5% probability of becoming next Israeli PM (September 13, 2026; $37.2M trading volume). Five-poll average (Sep 8-10): Yashar 23.6 seats, Likud 21.8 seats. Netanyahu's right-wing bloc reaches ~53-54 seats — far from the required 61. Only one of five current surveys (i24NEWS) shows Netanyahu near a majority. Eisenkot's bloc can reach up to 61 seats with Arab-democratic lists. Netanyahu has only 29% probability on Polymarket.