🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The latest INSA poll (September 17, 2026) gives the AfD 19% in Berlin – its first time leading in a Berlin capital poll. PolitPro's trend figure shows 17.8%. The average of both surveys sits at ~18.4%, lifting the probability of a result above 18.0% to ~55%. Historically, right-wing populist parties in Germany tend to slightly outperform their polling numbers on election day. No open AfD prediction for Berlin exists; all prior party predictions cover CDU, SPD, Linke, Grüne, FDP, and BSW.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
Die Linke leads in current Berlin election polls (September 10–17, 2026): Infratest dimap (ARD) shows Die Linke at 21%, CDU at 20%; another poll shows 23%, CDU 21%. The average is ~22%. No Polymarket market available. The 23.0% threshold sits at the upper end of the polling range, requiring slight overperformance of the current polling median; achievable with a ±2 pp polling error and positive mobilisation effect, but not certain. Estimated probability: ~40%. The existing platform prediction '>19.5%' (open) is not affected.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
According to dawum.de trend (September 14, 2026), Berlin's SPD stands at 11.6%; a recent INSA poll shows 12.0% — both at or near the 12% threshold. The SPD suffers from the Linke surge (21–23%) and loses both centrist-left voters and core supporters in eastern districts. In the 2023 Berlin state election, SPD still received 18.4%. No Polymarket contract available. Uncertainty: polling error ±2–3 points, latent protest potential for/against the SPD; election-day mobilization unknown. Note: The existing open prediction 'SPD < 14%' is a separate, less strict threshold.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
All current polls place CDU consistently at 20%: INSA (18 Sept) 20%, FG Wahlen/ZDF (17 Sept) 20%, Infratest dimap/ARD (10 Sept) 20%, dawum.de average 20.0%. The 18% threshold sits two percentage points below the polling average, well within the historical margin of error for German state elections. In Berlin's 2021 election, CDU (22.6% final) outperformed polls (18–21%). CDU's core electorate in affluent western districts (Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Reinickendorf) and structural over-representation of older voters underpin the result. No Polymarket market available; own estimate based on historical polling error distribution.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls consistently show Die Linke in MV well above the 8.5% threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15) 10%, Infratest dimap (Sep 9) 9%, Forsa (Aug 21–27) 11%, pollytix (Sep 8–9) 12%; weighted trend average 10.2%. Despite the BSW split (2024), Die Linke retains a stable voter base in MV. The 1.7 percentage point buffer between threshold and poll average acts as a cushion; even a full standard deviation downward swing (±2–3pp historical) would leave the result above 8.5%. Polymarket has no dedicated line for Die Linke's vote share; the MV election-winner market has SPD at 51 cents (leading).
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
In the first Russian parliamentary elections since the 2022 invasion, United Russia officially received 49.82% in 2021 and 54.2% in 2016. Pre-election polls for 2026 show real support at ~40%; the gap to the official result reflects known manipulation mechanisms. Foreign Policy and Time attest United Russia an 'all but assured' victory. In the nationalist, war-charged atmosphere with full media control, an official result above 49.0% — as in 2021 — is assessed as probable. No prediction market found with this specific threshold; calibrated on historical CEC patterns and analyst assessments. Confirmation expected from Russia's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) from September 21, 2026.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
dawum.de polling average (4 institutes, September 18, 2026, n = 7,138): FDP 2.5% — down 0.7 points in the past two weeks. No current poll has the FDP above 4%. Without a direct mandate, entry into parliament is practically ruled out. The FDP has had no Berlin representation since 2011.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
In the 2021 Russian State Duma election, United Russia received 49.82% of party-list votes. In 2026, elections take place in the 4th year of the war in Ukraine. Wartime historically boosts ruling parties in authoritarian systems; Russian election administration also employs systematic mobilization measures. A result above 55% would be a significant jump (+5.2 pp vs. 2021) but is plausible given wartime dynamics and documented administrative influence in Russian elections. If this prediction hits, the existing open prediction (ER >49%) would also be satisfied. No Polymarket/Metaculus market found; calibrated from historical Russian election data.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The latest polls for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election show BSW at only 3% (INSA, circa September 15, 2026) and 4% (Forsa, circa September 12, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. BSW's nationwide decline since its 2024 peak has significantly weakened its support in eastern Germany. No available prediction market instrument provides a direct BSW-MV signal; analogues from Thuringia, Saxony, and other German state elections in 2025–2026 support a probability of ~86%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The Greens sit at exactly 5% in the current PolitPro election trend (as of September 19, 2026) — right on the knife's edge. No prediction market available. However, the historical pattern from three recent eastern German elections shows consistent underperformance: Thuringia 2024 (3.2%), Brandenburg 2024 (4.1%), Saxony 2024 (5.1%). In MV 2021 they reached 6.3%, but the national Green weakness in structurally conservative eastern states has deepened further. Parties polling right at the threshold tend to underperform in eastern Germany.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
PolitPro and dawum.de currently place BSW in Berlin at 4.0% (as of September 18, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. The party lacks the voter base in Berlin that it has built in eastern German states (Thuringia, Saxony). None of the polls over the past four weeks reliably placed BSW above 4.5%, and a direct mandate rescue is ruled out for lack of constituency base. No dedicated prediction market available; calibrated solely on polling data.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
All final polls show a genuine three-way race: Die Linke at 20.7–23% (BerlinTREND/Infratest dimap, PolitPro, as of 18–19 Sep 2026) narrowly ahead of CDU (20–21%) and AfD (17–18.9%). In 5 of 6 latest polls Die Linke ranks first, but always within margin of error vs CDU. Greens (15–16%), SPD (10–12%), BSW (~3–4%), FDP (~3%) trail. No prediction markets for Berlin state elections available. The ~42% reflects the genuine three-way contest: with base odds ~25–30% each for Linke, CDU, AfD to top, Die Linke's polling lead gives a slight edge.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
All final polls (Infratest dimap, INSA, as of 17–18 Sep 2026) put the AfD at 37–38% in MV, more than two percentage points above the 35.0% threshold. SPD under Minister-President Schwesig follows at 33–34%; CDU and Die Linke each at ~7%. The gap between poll mean (~37.5%) and threshold (35%) exceeds the typical polling-error standard deviation (~2pp), justifying high confidence. No prediction markets available; 78% accounts for a residual SPD late-mobilisation risk.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
The election date for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is officially set for September 20, 2026 (source: State Parliament MV, LAIV MV). In current polls, the AfD in MV stands at approx. 33–38%, well ahead of the SPD (~22%) and CDU (~18%). MV was historically an SPD stronghold (2021: SPD 39.6% vs. AfD 17.7%); the mood shift since 2024 has been massive. Nationally, the AfD leads in eastern German states at ~40%. While other parties forming a coalition without the AfD is likely (firewall principle), this does not change the forecast for the AfD's vote share.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Three consistent polls (INSA/Nordkurier Aug 13: SPD 29%; Infratest dimap/NDR Jul 9: SPD 29%; INSA/Nordkurier Jun 22: SPD 28%) show SPD stable at 28–29%. The 25% threshold is ~4 percentage points below the current polling average — even with a −3 pp miss, SPD would be at 25–26%. Minister-President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) benefits from structural incumbent advantages; the party polls well above the national average in MV, backed by strong state structures. No prediction market available. Forecast is based on polling consistency across three survey cycles.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
An NDR poll (May 2026) shows the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 36% – well above the prediction threshold of 30%. The SPD stands at 29%, Die Linke at 12%, and CDU at only 9%. Although MV was traditionally an SPD stronghold (2021: SPD 39.6%, AfD 17.7%), the nationwide AfD upward trend (Saxony-Anhalt 2026: ~43%) has also taken hold in the northeast. The existing prediction 'SPD forms coalition without AfD' is consistent with a high AfD result (opposition vs. government formation). A result below 30% would require a substantial late swing. No Polymarket signal available.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The most recent INSA poll (August 13, 2026, n=1,000) shows the Greens in MV at exactly 5% — up 1pp from the previous poll, but still right on the threshold. With a margin of error of ±2–3pp, failure is well within reach. The Greens are structurally weak in eastern Germany (2021 MV result: 4.7%; 2016: 4.8% — both narrowly failed). In the current Cassandra system, FDP and BSW in MV are already forecast to fail; the Greens are the fourth party near the 5% line.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The CDU received 13.3% in the 2021 MV election — its historic low in the state. Open platform predictions have AfD as leading party and SPD above 24%, pointing to a realistic CDU range of 14–18%. A drop below 13% would be unprecedented in MV's electoral history. Calibrated probability of exceeding 13.0%: ~76%.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
INSA poll (Aug 4–11, 2026): AfD 36%, SPD 29%, Linke 11%, CDU 10%. AfD leads by 7pp and sits 4pp above the 32% threshold. No Polymarket market for MV available; accounting for ±2–3pp polling uncertainty, implicit probability of AfD >32% and leading party is ~82–85%. Historical context: AfD MV 2021 result was 17.7% – current strength reflects a dramatic voter shift.
🏛️ Politics
Hit
✦ AI
All current polls show Minister President Manuela Schwesig's SPD at 28–29%: Forsa (Aug 21–27, 2026): 28%, up +5 points vs February 2026; INSA (Aug 4–11): 29%. The 25% threshold sits 3–4 points below the polling average — a collapse exceeding 3 points in three weeks is historically unlikely for an incumbent with a strong leading figure. Die Linke (11%) operates in a distinct voter segment with minimal cannibalization.