🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Russian State Duma election (September 20, 2026): United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya) exceeds 55.0% of party-list votes

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

42%

In the 2021 Russian State Duma election, United Russia received 49.82% of party-list votes. In 2026, elections take place in the 4th year of the war in Ukraine. Wartime historically boosts ruling parties in authoritarian systems; Russian election administration also employs systematic mobilization measures. A result above 55% would be a significant jump (+5.2 pp vs. 2021) but is plausible given wartime dynamics and documented administrative influence in Russian elections. If this prediction hits, the existing open prediction (ER >49%) would also be satisfied. No Polymarket/Metaculus market found; calibrated from historical Russian election data.

Data basis for this prediction

Wikipedia / ipu.org: Russische Staatsdumawahl 2021 – Einiges Russland: 49,82 % (Quelle: CEC Russia, Stand: 19.09.2021)
Statista: Russian parliamentary election results 2021 (Einiges Russland 49,82 %)
Historische Analyse: Kriegszeiten-Effekt auf Regierungsparteien in autokratischen Systemen (Carnegie Endowment, 2022)

Verdict: Hit

Einiges Russland erzielte bei der Staatsdumawahl (18.–20. September 2026) ca. 57,83–58,79 % der Parteilistenstimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 55 %. Damit wurde die Vorhersage klar erfüllt. Quellen: Caliber.Az ('United Russia leads Russian State Duma vote with 57.86%'), Kommersant ('Единая Россия побеждает … с 57,87%'), Wikipedia '2026 Russian legislative election', Outlook India ('nearly 58%'). Der tatsächliche Zuwachs von ~8 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2021 (49,82 %) fiel noch stärker aus als die angenommenen +5,2 PP.

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