Russian State Duma election (September 20, 2026): United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya) exceeds 55.0% of party-list votes
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
In the 2021 Russian State Duma election, United Russia received 49.82% of party-list votes. In 2026, elections take place in the 4th year of the war in Ukraine. Wartime historically boosts ruling parties in authoritarian systems; Russian election administration also employs systematic mobilization measures. A result above 55% would be a significant jump (+5.2 pp vs. 2021) but is plausible given wartime dynamics and documented administrative influence in Russian elections. If this prediction hits, the existing open prediction (ER >49%) would also be satisfied. No Polymarket/Metaculus market found; calibrated from historical Russian election data.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wikipedia / ipu.org: Russische Staatsdumawahl 2021 – Einiges Russland: 49,82 % (Quelle: CEC Russia, Stand: 19.09.2021)
- Statista: Russian parliamentary election results 2021 (Einiges Russland 49,82 %)
- Historische Analyse: Kriegszeiten-Effekt auf Regierungsparteien in autokratischen Systemen (Carnegie Endowment, 2022)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
dawum.de polling average (4 institutes, September 18, 2026, n = 7,138): FDP 2.5% — down 0.7 points in the past two weeks. No current poll has the FDP above 4%. Without a direct mandate, entry into parliament is practically ruled out. The FDP has had no Berlin representation since 2011.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the first Russian parliamentary elections since the 2022 invasion, United Russia officially received 49.82% in 2021 and 54.2% in 2016. Pre-election polls for 2026 show real support at ~40%; the gap to the official result reflects known manipulation mechanisms. Foreign Policy and Time attest United Russia an 'all but assured' victory. In the nationalist, war-charged atmosphere with full media control, an official result above 49.0% — as in 2021 — is assessed as probable. No prediction market found with this specific threshold; calibrated on historical CEC patterns and analyst assessments. Confirmation expected from Russia's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) from September 21, 2026.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The high-level week of the 81st UN General Assembly runs September 22–27, 2026 in New York. Zelensky has regularly attended UNGA since 2022 and uses it intensively for bilateral meetings with Western leaders. Trump, as US president, traditionally delivers remarks to the General Assembly. Given ongoing US mediation efforts toward a Ukraine ceasefire and congressional pressure from the open Ukraine aid package prediction, a Trump-Zelensky bilateral in New York is highly plausible. The ongoing US-Iran conflict (day ~200) may burden Trump's agenda but simultaneously increases the need for broad diplomatic coordination. Metaculus rates comparable summit encounters during active crises at 60–70%. No specific Polymarket market found for this meeting.