🏛️ Politics
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BSW polls at 3.5-4.0% in all current Berlin surveys: PolitPro tracker (Sept 4, 2026) shows 3.8%, Infratest dimap likewise below 5%. Urban western-German Berlin lacks the structural base for a BSW late surge. No Polymarket market available; given the 1.2-1.5pp gap below the threshold, probability of failing the hurdle is estimated at ~79%.
🏛️ Politics
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The AfD has led MV polls for months. Latest Forsa poll (August 2026, Yahoo News/Reuters): AfD 37%, SPD 23%, CDU 13%, Die Linke 11%. The 35% threshold sits 2pp below the current polling average. No Polymarket market available. Even with modest Election Day correction, AfD is likely to exceed 35% — estimated probability: 60%.
🏛️ Politics
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Current Berlin polls show SPD between 11% (Infratest dimap, Sep 2026) and 12.4% (PolitPro aggregate, Sep 4). The expected value sits just above 12%. The party is squeezed within the left bloc by Die Linke (existing prediction: >19%) and Grünen (>14%). The 12.0% threshold lies right at the boundary of the diverging poll range – the PolitPro aggregate places them above it, Infratest below. No Polymarket contract for specific Berlin percentages.
🏛️ Politics
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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is a traditionally left-leaning eastern German state. Die Linke received 9.9% in the 2021 state election and roughly 10% in the 2021 Bundestag vote in MV. Voter migration to BSW (predicted >7% in MV) erodes the Linke base, but the party has historically shown resilience above the 5% threshold in eastern Germany. Current MV-specific polls are sparse; national trends show Die Linke weak nationwide but more stable in eastern states.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls (t-online.de/Ipsos, August/September 2026) show Die Linke at 20–22%, clearly ahead of CDU (~19%) and AfD (~18%), followed by Greens (15%) and SPD (13%). Top candidate Elif Eralp is mobilizing the progressive urban voter segment. No two-party majority is arithmetically feasible; three-party coalitions possible with or without Die Linke. Risk: narrow gap (~2–3 points) to CDU and AfD; polling fluctuations could flip the outcome. No Polymarket market.
🏛️ Politics
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All current polls consistently show BSW at 3–4%: Infratest dimap (Sep 3, 2026): 4%; Forsa (Sep 2, 2026): 4%; INSA (Aug 13, 2026): 4%. Dawum.de aggregate: BSW 4%. A recovery of >1 percentage point by election day is unlikely given the uniform data and current federal trend for BSW. Historical analogy: BSW already failed to enter the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament (September 6, 2026, confirmed) and several other state parliaments in 2025/26. Polymarket implied probabilities treat a BSW entry as very unlikely.
🏛️ Politics
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Tagesspiegel Berlin polling aggregate (Sep 4, 2026): Greens at 16.0%. The 13.0% threshold is 3 points below polling, outside the +/-1.5–2.5% typical error margin. In the 2023 Berlin election the Greens collapsed to 9.4% (coalition sentiment); since recovered nationally (EP election 2026: ~14%). Berlin's urban electorate is traditionally Green-friendly. No Polymarket market; ~82%.
🏛️ Politics
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Infratest dimap/NDR poll (Sep 3, 2026, n=1,215): Greens in MV at exactly 5.0% – right at the threshold. In eastern German states, Greens historically underperform polls (MV 2021: polls 5–6%, result 4.6%; MV 2016: 3.3%). Tactical voting in the AfD-SPD contest draws votes away from smaller parties. With the poll exactly at the threshold and a documented underperformance pattern: ~45%.
🏛️ Politics
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All current polls show AfD consistently at 35–37% as the leading party ahead of SPD (28–32%): Infratest dimap (September 3, 2026): AfD 35%, SPD 32%; Forsa (September 2, 2026): AfD 37%, SPD 28%; INSA (early September 2026): AfD 36%, SPD 29%. The gap is 5–9 percentage points. CDU (8–10%) is not a viable alternative winner. The Saxony-Anhalt comparison (AfD strongest party prediction was a miss as CDU won with 37.1%) counsels caution, but in MV there is no strong CDU alternative: CDU polls at only 8–10%, far from a surprise result. No Polymarket contract available; independent calibration 73%.
🏛️ Politics
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All available Berlin polls consistently show the FDP at 3.5% — well below the 5% threshold. Ipsos, the Tagesspiegel election trend, and dawum.de (early September 2026) confirm this figure uniformly. BSW also polls at ~3.8% and is likewise expected to fail. The calibration history is a warning: in the Saxony-Anhalt election (September 6, 2026) the FDP surprisingly achieved 6.4% and cleared the threshold (prediction miss). However, in Berlin there is no upward trend; moreover, the Berlin electorate is structurally less FDP-friendly than that of Saxony-Anhalt. Independent calibration yields approximately 88% probability of failing the threshold.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polling (Dawum.de aggregate, as of September 3, 2026) shows the CDU stable at ~19.5%. The average of the three most recent surveys is nearly 2.5 percentage points above the 17.0% prediction threshold — a comfortable buffer. The CDU benefits from high mobilization in Berlin's western districts and is seen as a solid second-to-third force alongside Die Linke (~20.0%) and AfD (~17.9%). Dropping below 17% would require a historically unprecedented collapse for the CDU in Berlin.
🏛️ Politics
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According to the latest PolitPro poll trend for Berlin (as of September 6, 2026), AfD stands at 17.9% – 2.9 percentage points above the 15% threshold. Even with a ±3pp polling error (as historically observed in the Berlin context), AfD would remain above 15%. Calibration history shows AfD shares in east-German-leaning elections have tended to be overestimated rather than underestimated recently; Berlin has a structurally capped AfD ceiling, but 15% is a conservative threshold. Polymarket 'Berlin State Election Winner' shows $3.47M in trading volume.
🏛️ Politics
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The current PolitPro poll trend for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (as of September 6/7, 2026) shows SPD at around 30% – 4 points above the 26% threshold. SPD has governed for decades and is structurally embedded in MV; in 2021 it received 39.6%. Even a historically unusual 14-point drop from 2021 would still leave SPD at ~26%. AfD leads with ~35.9%, SPD defends second place. No specific Polymarket market for SPD share in MV found; probability calibrated from PolitPro consensus and tolerance band.
🏛️ Politics
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At the 2021 MV state election, voter turnout was 70.8% – the highest since 1998, well above 65%. The 2026 election is highly polarized: the AfD is polling as the strongest party at ~28% according to WahlForecast.de and Dawum.de, with the SPD at ~22%. Such a contest historically generates high mobilization both by AfD supporters and in counter-mobilization. Historically, turnout at state elections with clear anti-AfD mobilization dynamics (e.g., Saxony 2024: 74.4%) has been well above 65%. No prediction market found for turnout; probability based on historical data: 78%.
🏛️ Politics
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The current PolitPro election trend (September 6, 2026) shows Die Linke at 20.0%; Forsa (t-online) at 22% and Infratest dimap (rbb) at 19%. All available polls are clearly above the 18% mark. Die Linke benefits from sustained dissatisfaction with CDU and SPD in Berlin and the focus on housing and social policy under top candidate Elif Eralp. Falling below 18% would require a simultaneous polling error of at least 1–4 points across all institutes – historically exceptional. No Polymarket market; estimate from polling consensus.
🏛️ Politics
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Infratest dimap (September 3, 2026) shows the AfD in MV at 35%, Forsa (September 2, 2026) at 37% – both institutes are more than 3 points above the 32% threshold. The AfD has more than doubled its share since the 2021 election (16.7%), benefiting from deep dissatisfaction over energy policy, migration, and structural economic change. No Polymarket market available; estimate from polling consensus. For context: the existing forecast 'AfD becomes strongest party' is consistent; this forecast specifies the expected magnitude.
🏛️ Politics
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Berlin polls (DAWUM.de, early September 2026) show BSW at only 3.4–3.6%, well below the 5% threshold. Reaching 5% by election day would require an exceptional late surge with no polling evidence. Analogous to the FDP, which is also below 5% and predicted to fail the threshold in a separate open prediction.
🏛️ Politics
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The FDP won 5.8% in MV's 2021 state election, barely clearing the threshold. Since then, the party has seen dramatic national decline: the coalition split (end-2024) and failure to clear the 5% threshold in the Bundestag election 2025. Current national polls place FDP at ~3–4%; in eastern Germany – where FDP has historically polled lower – results are likely weaker still. This platform already predicts FDP failing the 5% threshold in the simultaneous Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (also 20 September). MV as a more rural eastern state has historically delivered even lower FDP results. No MV-specific polls found for September 2026.
🏛️ Politics
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Current polls from September 4, 2026 (Ipsos/Tagesspiegel) show the Greens at 15–16% as the fourth-strongest party, behind CDU (19.8%), Linke (19.6%), and AfD (17.9%). SPD is already below the Greens at 13.1%. Berlin's Greens benefit from their stable voter base in urban West Berlin. A fall below 14.5% would only be possible with a significant vote shift toward Linke or SPD. BSW (3.6%) and FDP (3.3%) are below the 5% threshold. No Polymarket market known for this question.
🏛️ Politics
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The 14-day polling aggregate (INSA, 4 Sep 2026) shows CDU at 20%; PolitPro trend at 19.6%. The 18.0% threshold provides a ~2pp buffer against current polling. CDU under new lead candidate Stefan Evers (replacing Wegner in July 2026) is fighting for first place, marginally trailing Die Linke (19.3%). Historical polling errors at Berlin state elections have been ±2–3pp. No Polymarket market for this result.