Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The latest INSA poll (September 17, 2026) gives the AfD 19% in Berlin – its first time leading in a Berlin capital poll. PolitPro's trend figure shows 17.8%. The average of both surveys sits at ~18.4%, lifting the probability of a result above 18.0% to ~55%. Historically, right-wing populist parties in Germany tend to slightly outperform their polling numbers on election day. No open AfD prediction for Berlin exists; all prior party predictions cover CDU, SPD, Linke, Grüne, FDP, and BSW.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Poll Berlin 17.09.2026: AfD 19 %, erstmals führend (TVP World / INSA)
- PolitPro Trend 18.09.2026: AfD 17,8 %, Linke 20,3 %, CDU 19,9 % (politpro.eu)
- Wikipedia DE Wahl Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin 2026: Polling-Übersicht (wikipedia.org)
- Historische AfD-Überperformance bei deutschen Landtagswahlen 2024–2026 (diverse Quellen)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the 2021 Duma election, official turnout was 51.72% (three voting days). In the 2024 presidential election, the Central Election Commission reported 77.4% — a figure significantly inflated under wartime conditions. The 2026 Duma election runs again over three days (September 18–20) during the ongoing war, with political pressure on state employees and mobilized participation. Forecasts point to an officially supported turnout of between 57% and 72%. Probability of the official figure exceeding the 60% threshold estimated at approximately 62% — significantly above the 2021 level, but more moderate than the 2024 presidential election. No Polymarket data available for this specific event.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The 2023 Berlin re-run election achieved only 63.0% turnout; 2016 registered 66.9%. The 2021 figure of 75.7% was exceptional as it coincided with the Bundestagswahl. For 2026 — a standalone election — the relevant benchmarks are 2023 and 2016. Multiple parties (FDP, BSW) are fighting close to the 5% threshold, which historically drives additional voter mobilisation. A threshold of 66.5% implies a slight uptick vs 2016 and a clear rebound from 2023. No direct prediction market available. Own calibration: 58%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All recent polls for the MV state election put the CDU at 6–7%: Infratest dimap (7–9 Sep): 7%, FG Wahlen (7–10 Sep): 7%, INSA (1–8 Sep): 7%. The 9.0% threshold sits well above the entire polling band, offering a ~2pp buffer. No outlier poll suggests a CDU result above 8%. Threshold is conservatively set to account for polling error.