🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 25.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 2. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

88%

All current polls show Minister President Manuela Schwesig's SPD at 28–29%: Forsa (Aug 21–27, 2026): 28%, up +5 points vs February 2026; INSA (Aug 4–11): 29%. The 25% threshold sits 3–4 points below the polling average — a collapse exceeding 3 points in three weeks is historically unlikely for an incumbent with a strong leading figure. Die Linke (11%) operates in a distinct voter segment with minimal cannibalization.

Data basis for this prediction

Forsa MV-Umfrage, 21.–27. Aug. 2026: SPD 28% (+5 Pkt. ggü. Feb. 2026)
INSA MV-Umfrage, 4.–11. Aug. 2026: SPD 29%
wahlrecht.de MV Umfragenübersicht (Stand 2. Sept. 2026)
t-online.de MV-Wahl 2026 Wahlumfragen (Stand 2. Sept. 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem und endgültigem amtlichem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 35,5 % der Stimmen – damit übertraf sie die Schwelle von 25,0 % deutlich um 10,5 Prozentpunkte. Stärkste Kraft wurde die AfD mit 38,2 %. Quellen: Landeswahlleiter MV (https://www.landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), endgültiges Ergebnis (https://politik-mv.de/2026/09/30/das-endgueltige-wahlergebnis/), bpb.de (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/).

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