Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke wins more than 23.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Die Linke leads in current Berlin election polls (September 10–17, 2026): Infratest dimap (ARD) shows Die Linke at 21%, CDU at 20%; another poll shows 23%, CDU 21%. The average is ~22%. No Polymarket market available. The 23.0% threshold sits at the upper end of the polling range, requiring slight overperformance of the current polling median; achievable with a ±2 pp polling error and positive mobilisation effect, but not certain. Estimated probability: ~40%. The existing platform prediction '>19.5%' (open) is not affected.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap / ARD Wahlumfrage Berlin Sept 10–17, 2026: Die Linke 21 %, CDU 20 % (t-online.de, Stand 18.09.2026)
- Weitere Berliner Umfrage Sept 2026: Die Linke 23 %, CDU 21 %, AfD 17 % (Wahlrecht.de / DAWUM.de)
- Tagesspiegel Wahltrend-Aggregat Berlin Sept 2026: Die Linke 21–23 % (interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de)
Verdict: Hit
Die Linke erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut Wahlergebnis 25,7 % der Stimmen und wurde damit erstmals stärkste Kraft in Berlin. Die Schwelle von 23,0 % wurde deutlich überschritten. Quellen: Wikipedia (Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026), bpb.de Hintergrund aktuell, politpro.eu, Al Jazeera, The Berliner.
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