Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke wins more than 23.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Die Linke leads in current Berlin election polls (September 10–17, 2026): Infratest dimap (ARD) shows Die Linke at 21%, CDU at 20%; another poll shows 23%, CDU 21%. The average is ~22%. No Polymarket market available. The 23.0% threshold sits at the upper end of the polling range, requiring slight overperformance of the current polling median; achievable with a ±2 pp polling error and positive mobilisation effect, but not certain. Estimated probability: ~40%. The existing platform prediction '>19.5%' (open) is not affected.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap / ARD Wahlumfrage Berlin Sept 10–17, 2026: Die Linke 21 %, CDU 20 % (t-online.de, Stand 18.09.2026)
- Weitere Berliner Umfrage Sept 2026: Die Linke 23 %, CDU 21 %, AfD 17 % (Wahlrecht.de / DAWUM.de)
- Tagesspiegel Wahltrend-Aggregat Berlin Sept 2026: Die Linke 21–23 % (interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The latest INSA poll (September 17, 2026) gives the AfD 19% in Berlin – its first time leading in a Berlin capital poll. PolitPro's trend figure shows 17.8%. The average of both surveys sits at ~18.4%, lifting the probability of a result above 18.0% to ~55%. Historically, right-wing populist parties in Germany tend to slightly outperform their polling numbers on election day. No open AfD prediction for Berlin exists; all prior party predictions cover CDU, SPD, Linke, Grüne, FDP, and BSW.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the 2021 Duma election, official turnout was 51.72% (three voting days). In the 2024 presidential election, the Central Election Commission reported 77.4% — a figure significantly inflated under wartime conditions. The 2026 Duma election runs again over three days (September 18–20) during the ongoing war, with political pressure on state employees and mobilized participation. Forecasts point to an officially supported turnout of between 57% and 72%. Probability of the official figure exceeding the 60% threshold estimated at approximately 62% — significantly above the 2021 level, but more moderate than the 2024 presidential election. No Polymarket data available for this specific event.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The 2023 Berlin re-run election achieved only 63.0% turnout; 2016 registered 66.9%. The 2021 figure of 75.7% was exceptional as it coincided with the Bundestagswahl. For 2026 — a standalone election — the relevant benchmarks are 2023 and 2016. Multiple parties (FDP, BSW) are fighting close to the 5% threshold, which historically drives additional voter mobilisation. A threshold of 66.5% implies a slight uptick vs 2016 and a clear rebound from 2023. No direct prediction market available. Own calibration: 58%.