Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 25.0% of votes cast (confirmed by MV state returning officer)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Three consistent polls (INSA/Nordkurier Aug 13: SPD 29%; Infratest dimap/NDR Jul 9: SPD 29%; INSA/Nordkurier Jun 22: SPD 28%) show SPD stable at 28–29%. The 25% threshold is ~4 percentage points below the current polling average — even with a −3 pp miss, SPD would be at 25–26%. Minister-President Manuela Schwesig (SPD) benefits from structural incumbent advantages; the party polls well above the national average in MV, backed by strong state structures. No prediction market available. Forecast is based on polling consistency across three survey cycles.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA/Nordkurier: SPD 29 %, AfD 36 % (Stand 13.08.2026; Feldarbeit 4.–11. Aug., n=1.000)
- Infratest dimap/NDR: SPD 29 %, AfD 36 % (09.07.2026; Feldarbeit 2.–6. Jul., n=1.167)
- INSA/Nordkurier: SPD 28 %, AfD 35 % (22.06.2026; n=1.000)
- wahlrecht.de: Historische Umfrageübersicht MV 2026 (August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.