🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) Fails the 5% Threshold and Does Not Enter the State Parliament

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

80%

PolitPro and dawum.de currently place BSW in Berlin at 4.0% (as of September 18, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. The party lacks the voter base in Berlin that it has built in eastern German states (Thuringia, Saxony). None of the polls over the past four weeks reliably placed BSW above 4.5%, and a direct mandate rescue is ruled out for lack of constituency base. No dedicated prediction market available; calibrated solely on polling data.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro/dawum.de Berliner Wahlumfragen: BSW 4,0 % (Stand 18. September 2026)
Wikipedia 2026 Berlin state election – Polling summary September 2026 (abgerufen 19. September 2026)
Wahlrecht.de Umfragen Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin – kein Wert über 4,5 % für BSW in 4 Wochen

Verdict: Hit

BSW erhielt bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,7 % der Stimmen und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5-%-Sperrklausel. Die Partei zog nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Die Vorhersage traf vollständig ein, obwohl das tatsächliche Ergebnis (4,7 %) etwas höher lag als die prognostizierten ~4,0 % laut Umfragen. Quellen: Brussels Signal ('Die Linke wins Berlin election as CDU vote collapses', 21.09.2026), Octagon AI ('BSW's Berlin Election Miss'), Wikipedia DE ('Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026').

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026