🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fail to pass the 5% threshold at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and do not enter the Schwerin Landtag (confirmed by MV Landeswahlleiter or tagesschau.de)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 2. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

50%

The most recent INSA poll (August 13, 2026, n=1,000) shows the Greens in MV at exactly 5% — up 1pp from the previous poll, but still right on the threshold. With a margin of error of ±2–3pp, failure is well within reach. The Greens are structurally weak in eastern Germany (2021 MV result: 4.7%; 2016: 4.8% — both narrowly failed). In the current Cassandra system, FDP and BSW in MV are already forecast to fail; the Greens are the fourth party near the 5% line.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage MV (Erhebungszeitraum 4.–11.8.2026, veröffentlicht 13.8.2026): Grüne 5 %
t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Wahlumfrage – SPD zittert mit zwei Parteien (August 2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election – Greens at 5% (Stand 2.9.2026)
Wikipedia: 2021 MV state election – Grüne 4,7 % (Ergebnis)

Verdict: Miss

Die Grünen übersprangen bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 die 5-%-Sperrklausel mit ca. 5,7 % der Stimmen und zogen mit 5 Mandaten in den Schweriner Landtag ein. Die Vorhersage ihres Scheiterns ist damit nicht eingetreten. Ironie des Ergebnisses: Ausgerechnet die Parteien, die laut Vorhersage als gesetzt galten oder bei denen Scheitern als wahrscheinlicher galt, verfehlten die Hürde – CDU (4,9 %), FDP (1,0 %) und BSW (4,8 %) schieden alle aus. Die Grünen profitierten wohl von einer leichten Mobilisierung bzw. taktischem Wählerverhalten und lagen am Ende klar über der Schwelle. Quellen: Landtag MV (vorl. amtl. Endergebnis), bpb.de, de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026

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