2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election: AfD exceeds 35.0% of party-list votes cast (confirmed by MV State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
All final polls (Infratest dimap, INSA, as of 17–18 Sep 2026) put the AfD at 37–38% in MV, more than two percentage points above the 35.0% threshold. SPD under Minister-President Schwesig follows at 33–34%; CDU and Die Linke each at ~7%. The gap between poll mean (~37.5%) and threshold (35%) exceeds the typical polling-error standard deviation (~2pp), justifying high confidence. No prediction markets available; 78% accounts for a residual SPD late-mobilisation risk.
Data basis for this prediction
- Infratest dimap für MV, 18.09.2026: AfD 37 %, SPD 33 %, CDU 7 %, Linke 7 %
- INSA für MV, 17.09.2026: AfD 38 %, SPD 34 %
- wahlrecht.de: Umfragenübersicht Landtagswahl MV 2026, abgerufen 20.09.2026
- Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election – AfD von 16,7 % (2021) auf ~37–38 % (2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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✦ AI
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