🏛️ Politics · Tomorrow

2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election: AfD exceeds 35.0% of party-list votes cast (confirmed by MV State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

78%

All final polls (Infratest dimap, INSA, as of 17–18 Sep 2026) put the AfD at 37–38% in MV, more than two percentage points above the 35.0% threshold. SPD under Minister-President Schwesig follows at 33–34%; CDU and Die Linke each at ~7%. The gap between poll mean (~37.5%) and threshold (35%) exceeds the typical polling-error standard deviation (~2pp), justifying high confidence. No prediction markets available; 78% accounts for a residual SPD late-mobilisation risk.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap für MV, 18.09.2026: AfD 37 %, SPD 33 %, CDU 7 %, Linke 7 %
INSA für MV, 17.09.2026: AfD 38 %, SPD 34 %
wahlrecht.de: Umfragenübersicht Landtagswahl MV 2026, abgerufen 20.09.2026
Wikipedia: 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election – AfD von 16,7 % (2021) auf ~37–38 % (2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters MV 38,2 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 35,0 %. Sie wurde damit erstmals stärkste Kraft im Schweriner Landtag (32 Sitze). Die SPD kam auf 35,5 %, Die Linke auf 6,5 %, die Grünen auf 5,7 %; CDU (4,9 %) und FDP (1,0 %) scheiterten an der 5-%-Hürde. Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), bpb.de, Wikipedia.

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