Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): FDP Fails to Cross the 5% Threshold and Does Not Enter Berlin's Parliament (confirmed by Berlin Electoral Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
dawum.de polling average (4 institutes, September 18, 2026, n = 7,138): FDP 2.5% — down 0.7 points in the past two weeks. No current poll has the FDP above 4%. Without a direct mandate, entry into parliament is practically ruled out. The FDP has had no Berlin representation since 2011.
Data basis for this prediction
- dawum.de Sonntagsfrage Berlin (18.09.2026, n=7.138, 4 Institute): FDP 2,5 % (–0,7 Pkt.)
- INSA-Umfrage für Bild (Mitte September 2026): FDP 3 %
- wahlrecht.de – Übersicht Berliner Wahlumfragen, Stand 18.09.2026
- t-online.de (18.09.2026): 'CDU und Linke gleichauf' – FDP unter 3 % in Forsa-Erhebung
Verdict: Hit
Die FDP ist in den veröffentlichten Ergebnissen der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl vom 20. September 2026 nicht unter den ins Parlament eingezogenen Parteien aufgeführt. Laut politpro.eu und Al Jazeera erzielten Die Linke (25,7 %), CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %), Grüne (14,3 %), SPD (12,1 %) und BSW (4,7 %) Einzug; die FDP fehlt vollständig in der Ergebnisübersicht, was ihrem Scheitern an der 5-%-Hürde entspricht. Quellen: https://politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026 und https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election
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