Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives less than 12.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
According to dawum.de trend (September 14, 2026), Berlin's SPD stands at 11.6%; a recent INSA poll shows 12.0% — both at or near the 12% threshold. The SPD suffers from the Linke surge (21–23%) and loses both centrist-left voters and core supporters in eastern districts. In the 2023 Berlin state election, SPD still received 18.4%. No Polymarket contract available. Uncertainty: polling error ±2–3 points, latent protest potential for/against the SPD; election-day mobilization unknown. Note: The existing open prediction 'SPD < 14%' is a separate, less strict threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- dawum.de Wahltrend Berlin (14.09.2026): SPD 11,6 %, Linke 21,1 %, CDU 20,2 %, AfD 17,7 %, Grüne 15,9 %
- INSA-Umfrage Berlin September 2026: SPD 12 %, Linke/CDU je 20 %, AfD 18 %, Grüne 16 % (t-online.de)
- Wahlrecht.de: Berliner Wahlumfragen 2026 – Aggregat September (Stand 18.09.2026)
- Berlin-Wahl 2023 Ergebnis: SPD 18,4 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Die Linke leads in current Berlin election polls (September 10–17, 2026): Infratest dimap (ARD) shows Die Linke at 21%, CDU at 20%; another poll shows 23%, CDU 21%. The average is ~22%. No Polymarket market available. The 23.0% threshold sits at the upper end of the polling range, requiring slight overperformance of the current polling median; achievable with a ±2 pp polling error and positive mobilisation effect, but not certain. Estimated probability: ~40%. The existing platform prediction '>19.5%' (open) is not affected.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The latest INSA poll (September 17, 2026) gives the AfD 19% in Berlin – its first time leading in a Berlin capital poll. PolitPro's trend figure shows 17.8%. The average of both surveys sits at ~18.4%, lifting the probability of a result above 18.0% to ~55%. Historically, right-wing populist parties in Germany tend to slightly outperform their polling numbers on election day. No open AfD prediction for Berlin exists; all prior party predictions cover CDU, SPD, Linke, Grüne, FDP, and BSW.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the 2021 Duma election, official turnout was 51.72% (three voting days). In the 2024 presidential election, the Central Election Commission reported 77.4% — a figure significantly inflated under wartime conditions. The 2026 Duma election runs again over three days (September 18–20) during the ongoing war, with political pressure on state employees and mobilized participation. Forecasts point to an officially supported turnout of between 57% and 72%. Probability of the official figure exceeding the 60% threshold estimated at approximately 62% — significantly above the 2021 level, but more moderate than the 2024 presidential election. No Polymarket data available for this specific event.