🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current polls for the MV state election consistently show BSW at approximately 4%, clearly below the 5% threshold (bundestagwahlumfrage.de, dawum.de, t-online.de). The FDP is at 2–3%, also without a realistic chance. Historically, a catch-up of more than one percentage point for a minor party in the final weeks is possible but unlikely. Confirmed by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state electoral authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
The PolitPro election trend for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern places Die Linke at 11.2% (September 2026). A Forsa poll (via Yahoo News/Tagesspiegel) confirms a level around 11%. In the last state election in 2021, Die Linke received 9.9%. In eastern German states, Die Linke has historically stronger roots than nationally; MV was long a Linke stronghold. The > 9.5% threshold is about 1.7 percentage points below the poll average, providing a buffer against systematic polling overestimation. Existing Cassandra open predictions for the MV election cover AfD, SPD, CDU, and BSW – Die Linke is not explicitly covered as a party. Aggregated bookmaker odds for individual party percentages not available.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current polls show Die Linke at 19% (INSA, August 7–13, 2026) and 21% (Civey, August 5, 2026)—both well above the 16.0% threshold. Berlin is historically a Die Linke stronghold. The 2021 result was 14.0% (during a period of governing coalition decline); since then polls have recovered significantly. A drop below 16% would require a 3+ percentage point polling error, which is rare in German state elections. No Polymarket market for Berlin available.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
CDU under lead candidate Stefan Evers polls at 19–20% (INSA: 20%, Civey: 19%), narrowly ahead of Die Linke (19–21%) and AfD (17–18%). The race is extremely tight—all three parties within 3 percentage points. CDU benefits from strong turnout mobilization and Evers' visibility as former parliamentary leader. In a three-way horse race, CDU becoming largest party represents a ~40–45% scenario. Coalition formation (CDU+Greens+SPD or Linke+Greens+SPD) depends more on the bloc balance than CDU margin. No Polymarket market available.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current INSA polls (August/September 2026) show Grünen in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at exactly 5% — right at the threshold. This makes the prediction close to a coin flip, priced at slightly below 50%. In eastern Germany, the Greens historically face polling compression: at the 2021 MV state election they received 4.5% and missed entry. East German polls tend to slightly overestimate the Greens. At the same time, the federal trend since the Ampel coalition shows a slightly stabilizing Green core electorate. Net probability: 42%.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
Current polls for the MV 2026 election place CDU at only 9–10% (Insa August 2026: 10%, Infratest dimap July 2026: 9%), well below the 2021 result of 13.3%. CDU in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is structurally weakened, as the AfD (forecast >32%) has absorbed former CDU voters and the SPD still dominates despite losses. The 10% threshold sits at the upper end of the polling range; late swing and mobilisation effects can add 1–2 percentage points. A result just below 10% remains a scenario.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current polls for the MV state election: Forsa/Ostsee-Zeitung (September 2, 2026) shows AfD at 37%; Infratest dimap/NDR at 35%. The gap between the polling center (~36%) and the 32% threshold is ~4 percentage points. Even with a negative polling error of 3–4 points (historical maximum in eastern German elections), missing the 32% mark is very unlikely. In MV in 2021 the AfD won 17.7%; it has massively gained in national polls since then. No direct Polymarket equivalent found.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Berlin polls consistently show the AfD at 17–19% (Wikipedia/wahlrecht.de overviews, as of August/September 2026). The 14% threshold is ~3–5 points below the polling center and would be very unlikely to miss even with an unusually large negative polling error. The Polymarket market for Berlin AfD (9.3% market price) most likely refers to 'AfD becoming the strongest party' — a much higher bar. The open prediction 'CDU strongest party' is consistent with AfD at 17–19%.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
PolitPro trend shows SPD at 12.8%, Infratest-dimap at 13%, Forsa at 15% – polling average ~13.3%. Berlin is historically an SPD stronghold (always above 15% since 1989), even though the party currently ranks 5th in 2026 (behind Linke 20%, CDU 19%, AfD 18%, Grüne 15%). A sub-12% result would be a historically unprecedented Berlin SPD collapse. Risk comes from polling error (±2–3pp) and potential turnout weakness. No exchange market found for this threshold; calibrated at 72%.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
The SPD polls at 30.0% ahead of the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) per PolitPro.eu/Wikipedia (as of September 2026; AfD 35.9%, Linke 11%, CDU 9%, Greens 5%). MV is traditionally an SPD stronghold (2021: 39.6%). The threshold of 27.0% sits 3 points below the poll average. Assuming N(30; 3.5²): P(X>27) ≈ 80%. No specific Polymarket market available. Risk: a major AfD surge due to local events could demobilize SPD voters; structural SPD weakness nationwide.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
BSW polls at just 3.4% per politpro.eu aggregate (as of September 2, 2026) in Berlin — around 1.6 percentage points below the 5% threshold. No recent Berlin poll shows BSW exceeding 4%. Given stable polling underperformance and typical Berlin polling tolerance (±1.5pp, 4 weeks before the election), entry into the Abgeordnetenhaus is very unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin-BSW available.
🏛️ Politics
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FDP polls at 3.1% per politpro.eu aggregate (September 2, 2026) in Berlin — nearly 2 percentage points below the 5% threshold. Following the federal coalition collapse in 2024 and poor results in the 2025 federal election, FDP is in structural crisis. In Berlin, FDP has consistently failed to mobilize beyond single-digit territory in recent years. No Polymarket market for Berlin-FDP.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current polls (Infratest dimap Aug 26-31; Forsa Aug 21-27; INSA Aug 4-11; weighted average as of September 3, 2026) show AfD at 35.9% vs SPD at 30.0%. The ~6 percentage point lead is stable across pollsters. This would be the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic that a far-right party wins a state election in MV. No direct Polymarket market available; own estimate based on three independent polling institutes.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current Berlin polls (late August / early September 2026) show Grüne at 15-17%, comfortably above the 14.0% prediction threshold. The Greens have structural strength in Berlin (urban young voters in Pankow, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Charlottenburg). Despite some erosion from the 2023 result of 18.9%, falling below 14% when three independent polls show 15%+ is unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin party results found.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
Current Berlin polls (September 2026) show Die Linke at 20% narrowly ahead of CDU (19.7%), AfD (17.8%), Greens (17%), and SPD (12.1%). BSW (3.7%) and FDP (3.1%) are below the threshold. Polymarket gives Die Linke ~43–44% as the most likely election winner — an increase after the withdrawal of CDU top candidate Kai Wegner. The gap of only 0.3 percentage points to CDU is within the polling margin of error (±2–3%), creating substantial uncertainty. The dual condition (>19.0% AND strongest party) raises the bar: a strong CDU or AfD result on election day could displace Die Linke from the top spot even if it achieves >19%. Compatible with all existing Berlin predictions on the platform.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
BSW achieved 11–16% at 2024 eastern German state elections (Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg). No current MV-specific polls were found; based on eastern German voter-structure patterns, BSW tends well above 5%. The 7% threshold clears the electoral threshold but sits below typical BSW results in comparable eastern states. No prediction market available; classified speculative. Existing Cassandra MV predictions cover only AfD, SPD, and CDU.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
The CDU still received 28.2% at the 2023 Berlin state election and provided governing mayor Kai Wegner. Existing predictions for the same election see Die Linke as the strongest party (>19%), Greens >14%, SPD >12% — indicating substantial CDU erosion. Nevertheless, a CDU collapse below 15% seems unlikely: even at its historic low in 2011 (17.6%), the CDU remained well above that threshold. Current poll aggregators place Berlin CDU 2026 in the 15–20% range, with the lower bound at ~16%. No Polymarket contract; calibrated from 2023 result and political shifts.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
The AfD received only 9.2% at the 2023 Berlin state election. Since then the AfD has gained significantly nationally — at the 2025 federal election it stood at ~21% nationwide. East Berlin's peripheral districts are also traditionally AfD-affine. Current poll aggregators place the AfD in Berlin for 2026 at ~14–18%, meaning the probability of exceeding the >16% threshold is approximately 55–60%. The existing prediction for the Berlin election (Linke strongest party >19%, BSW <5%, FDP <5%) arithmetically leaves enough room for an AfD result of 16–20% that is compatible with the Linke primacy result. No Polymarket contract; calibrated from 2025 federal result and Berlin regional polls.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
The most recent poll (Infratest dimap for NDR, July 2–6, 2026) shows the SPD at 29% under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, behind the leading AfD (36%) but well ahead of CDU (9%) and Linke (12%). Historically strong in MV (39.6% in 2021). A fall below 25% by election day would require a swing of over 4 points from the July level. The Schwesig incumbency premium provides additional protection.
🏛️ Politics
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✦ AI
In the 2021 State Duma elections, United Russia won 324 out of 450 seats (72%). The party exercises near-total control over media, electoral authorities, and candidate registration. Despite economic pressures from sanctions and war costs, state-measured approval sits above 55%. Historically, United Russia has secured a supermajority in all Duma elections since 2003. A result below 300 seats would be a historic outlier requiring extreme political upheaval currently not in evidence. Metaculus consensus: >90% probability of party dominance.