Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen fail the 5% threshold and do not enter the Schweriner Landtag (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The Greens sit at exactly 5% in the current PolitPro election trend (as of September 19, 2026) — right on the knife's edge. No prediction market available. However, the historical pattern from three recent eastern German elections shows consistent underperformance: Thuringia 2024 (3.2%), Brandenburg 2024 (4.1%), Saxony 2024 (5.1%). In MV 2021 they reached 6.3%, but the national Green weakness in structurally conservative eastern states has deepened further. Parties polling right at the threshold tend to underperform in eastern Germany.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend MV 2026: Grüne 5 % (Stand 19.09.2026, politpro.eu)
- wahlrecht.de Umfragenübersicht Landtagswahl MV 2026 (Stand 19.09.2026)
- Thüringen-Wahl 2024: Grüne 3,2 %; Brandenburg-Wahl 2024: Grüne 4,1 % (Landeswahlleiter)
- Sachsen-Wahl 2024: Grüne 5,1 %; MV-Wahl 2021: Grüne 6,3 % (Landeswahlleiter)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
PolitPro and dawum.de currently place BSW in Berlin at 4.0% (as of September 18, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. The party lacks the voter base in Berlin that it has built in eastern German states (Thuringia, Saxony). None of the polls over the past four weeks reliably placed BSW above 4.5%, and a direct mandate rescue is ruled out for lack of constituency base. No dedicated prediction market available; calibrated solely on polling data.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The latest polls for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election show BSW at only 3% (INSA, circa September 15, 2026) and 4% (Forsa, circa September 12, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. BSW's nationwide decline since its 2024 peak has significantly weakened its support in eastern Germany. No available prediction market instrument provides a direct BSW-MV signal; analogues from Thuringia, Saxony, and other German state elections in 2025–2026 support a probability of ~86%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the 2021 Russian State Duma election, United Russia received 49.82% of party-list votes. In 2026, elections take place in the 4th year of the war in Ukraine. Wartime historically boosts ruling parties in authoritarian systems; Russian election administration also employs systematic mobilization measures. A result above 55% would be a significant jump (+5.2 pp vs. 2021) but is plausible given wartime dynamics and documented administrative influence in Russian elections. If this prediction hits, the existing open prediction (ER >49%) would also be satisfied. No Polymarket/Metaculus market found; calibrated from historical Russian election data.