Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election (20 September 2026): CDU receives more than 13.0% of the vote (confirmed by state returning officer or tagesschau.de)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 2. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The CDU received 13.3% in the 2021 MV election — its historic low in the state. Open platform predictions have AfD as leading party and SPD above 24%, pointing to a realistic CDU range of 14–18%. A drop below 13% would be unprecedented in MV's electoral history. Calibrated probability of exceeding 13.0%: ~76%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wikipedia – Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021: CDU 13,3% (historisches Tief)
- Cassandra.news – Offene Prognosen MV 2026: AfD stärkste Partei, SPD >24%
- wahlrecht.de – MV-Umfragen Übersicht (Stand 2. September 2026)
Verdict: Miss
Die CDU erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lediglich 4,9 % und scheiterte damit sogar an der 5-%-Hürde – ein historisches Debakel, das ersten Mal in der Geschichte der Bundesrepublik, dass die CDU nicht in ein Landesparlament einzog. Das Ergebnis verfehlt die Vorhersage von >13,0 % dramatisch um mehr als 8 Prozentpunkte. Die AfD gewann die Wahl mit 38,2 %, die SPD erreichte 35,5 %. Quellen: bpb.de ('Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026: AfD stärkste Kraft, CDU verfehlt Einzug in den Landtag') sowie das vorläufige amtliche Endergebnis auf landtag-mv.de.
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