MV State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the Schwerin state parliament
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The latest polls for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election show BSW at only 3% (INSA, circa September 15, 2026) and 4% (Forsa, circa September 12, 2026) – well below the 5% threshold. BSW's nationwide decline since its 2024 peak has significantly weakened its support in eastern Germany. No available prediction market instrument provides a direct BSW-MV signal; analogues from Thuringia, Saxony, and other German state elections in 2025–2026 support a probability of ~86%.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Umfrage LTW MV: BSW 3 % (Stand ca. 15. September 2026, wahlrecht.de)
- Forsa-Umfrage LTW MV: BSW 4 % (Stand ca. 12. September 2026, wahlrecht.de)
- Wikipedia: Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 – Umfrageübersicht (abgerufen 19.09.2026)
- BSW-Ergebnisse Thüringen/Sachsen/Brandenburg 2024 und Folgewahlen 2025 als Analogbasis
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the 2021 Russian State Duma election, United Russia received 49.82% of party-list votes. In 2026, elections take place in the 4th year of the war in Ukraine. Wartime historically boosts ruling parties in authoritarian systems; Russian election administration also employs systematic mobilization measures. A result above 55% would be a significant jump (+5.2 pp vs. 2021) but is plausible given wartime dynamics and documented administrative influence in Russian elections. If this prediction hits, the existing open prediction (ER >49%) would also be satisfied. No Polymarket/Metaculus market found; calibrated from historical Russian election data.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
dawum.de polling average (4 institutes, September 18, 2026, n = 7,138): FDP 2.5% — down 0.7 points in the past two weeks. No current poll has the FDP above 4%. Without a direct mandate, entry into parliament is practically ruled out. The FDP has had no Berlin representation since 2011.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the first Russian parliamentary elections since the 2022 invasion, United Russia officially received 49.82% in 2021 and 54.2% in 2016. Pre-election polls for 2026 show real support at ~40%; the gap to the official result reflects known manipulation mechanisms. Foreign Policy and Time attest United Russia an 'all but assured' victory. In the nationalist, war-charged atmosphere with full media control, an official result above 49.0% — as in 2021 — is assessed as probable. No prediction market found with this specific threshold; calibrated on historical CEC patterns and analyst assessments. Confirmation expected from Russia's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) from September 21, 2026.