Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): CDU wins more than 18.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The 14-day polling aggregate (INSA, 4 Sep 2026) shows CDU at 20%; PolitPro trend at 19.6%. The 18.0% threshold provides a ~2pp buffer against current polling. CDU under new lead candidate Stefan Evers (replacing Wegner in July 2026) is fighting for first place, marginally trailing Die Linke (19.3%). Historical polling errors at Berlin state elections have been ±2–3pp. No Polymarket market for this result.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA Umfrage Berlin (4. September 2026): CDU 20 %, Die Linke 19,3 %, AfD 18 %
- PolitPro Wahltrend Berlin: CDU 19,6 %, Die Linke 19,3 % (Stand 6.9.2026)
- Tagesspiegel: 'Neue Umfrage sieht CDU in Berlin knapp vor Linken' (September 2026)
- wahlrecht.de: Wahlumfragen Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus – Sonntagsfrage September 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.