Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 17.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polling (Dawum.de aggregate, as of September 3, 2026) shows the CDU stable at ~19.5%. The average of the three most recent surveys is nearly 2.5 percentage points above the 17.0% prediction threshold — a comfortable buffer. The CDU benefits from high mobilization in Berlin's western districts and is seen as a solid second-to-third force alongside Die Linke (~20.0%) and AfD (~17.9%). Dropping below 17% would require a historically unprecedented collapse for the CDU in Berlin.
Data basis for this prediction
- Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl Umfrage-Aggregat: CDU 19,5 % (Dawum.de, 3. Sep 2026)
- Wikipedia Polling-Aggregator 2026 Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl (Stand Sep 2026)
- Berliner Morgenpost Wahlumfragen (Sep 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die CDU erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Berichten (u.a. statistiken-aktuell.de, ZDF heute, Wikipedia) 18,8 % der Stimmen — und liegt damit klar über der Prognoseschwelle von 17,0 %. Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Quelle: https://statistiken-aktuell.de/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2026/
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.