AfD receives more than 35.0% of votes cast at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on September 20, 2026 (confirmed by MV state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The AfD has led MV polls for months. Latest Forsa poll (August 2026, Yahoo News/Reuters): AfD 37%, SPD 23%, CDU 13%, Die Linke 11%. The 35% threshold sits 2pp below the current polling average. No Polymarket market available. Even with modest Election Day correction, AfD is likely to exceed 35% — estimated probability: 60%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Yahoo News/Reuters: 'Germany's AfD leads MV poll at 37%' (Forsa, August 2026)
- t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Wahlumfrage — AfD 36 %, SPD bangt (August 2026)
- wahlrecht.de Landtag MV: Sonntagsfrage — AfD 36–37 % (August/September 2026)
- wikipedia.org: 2021 MV Landtagswahl — AfD 16,7 % (Vergleichsbasis)
Verdict: Hit
Die AfD erzielte laut amtlichem Endergebnis des Landeswahlleiters MV (Dr. Christian Boden, bekanntgegeben am 30. September 2026) exakt 38,2 % der gültigen Zweitstimmen — und übertraf damit die Schwelle von 35,0 % deutlich um 3,2 Prozentpunkte. Die AfD wurde stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5 %). Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de), BpB (bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565), Wikipedia EN (2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election).
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