SPD achieves more than 12.0% of votes cast at the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026), confirmed by the Berlin state electoral authority or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current Berlin polls show SPD between 11% (Infratest dimap, Sep 2026) and 12.4% (PolitPro aggregate, Sep 4). The expected value sits just above 12%. The party is squeezed within the left bloc by Die Linke (existing prediction: >19%) and Grünen (>14%). The 12.0% threshold lies right at the boundary of the diverging poll range – the PolitPro aggregate places them above it, Infratest below. No Polymarket contract for specific Berlin percentages.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Wahltrend Berlin, 4. Sep 2026: SPD 12,4 %
- Infratest dimap Berlin-Umfrage Sep 2026: SPD 11 %
- t-online.de Wahlumfrage Berlin 2026 (Sep 2026): Parteien und Trends
- wahlrecht.de Landtagsumfragen Berlin 2026 (Aggregat)
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 exakt 12,1 % der Zweitstimmen – damit knapp über der Schwelle von 12,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat ein. Das Ergebnis bestätigt die optimistischere Umfrage-Variante (PolitPro-Aggregat: 12,4 %) gegenüber dem Infratest-dimap-Wert (11 %). Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (Landeswahlleiter), politpro.eu, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election.
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