🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 32.0% of valid votes (confirmed by MV state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

82%

Infratest dimap (September 3, 2026) shows the AfD in MV at 35%, Forsa (September 2, 2026) at 37% – both institutes are more than 3 points above the 32% threshold. The AfD has more than doubled its share since the 2021 election (16.7%), benefiting from deep dissatisfaction over energy policy, migration, and structural economic change. No Polymarket market available; estimate from polling consensus. For context: the existing forecast 'AfD becomes strongest party' is consistent; this forecast specifies the expected magnitude.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap: AfD 35 %, SPD 32 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (3. September 2026)
Forsa: AfD 37 %, SPD 28 % in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2. September 2026)
wahlrecht.de: Umfragen Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern – Sonntagsfrage (September 2026)
Wikipedia: '2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election' – AfD more than doubled vs. 2021 result

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 32,0 %. Die AfD wurde damit stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5 %). Quellen: Landtag MV (landtag-mv.de/aktuelles/artikel/landtagswahl-2026-vorlaeufiges-amtliches-endergebnis), wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia DE.

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