Berlin State Election (Sep 20, 2026): Alliance 90/The Greens receive more than 13.0% of votes cast
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Tagesspiegel Berlin polling aggregate (Sep 4, 2026): Greens at 16.0%. The 13.0% threshold is 3 points below polling, outside the +/-1.5–2.5% typical error margin. In the 2023 Berlin election the Greens collapsed to 9.4% (coalition sentiment); since recovered nationally (EP election 2026: ~14%). Berlin's urban electorate is traditionally Green-friendly. No Polymarket market; ~82%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Tagesspiegel Wahltrend Berlin, 4. Sep 2026: Gruene 16,0 % (interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de)
- Berlin-Wahl 2023: Gruene 9,4 %; EP-Wahl 2026 bundesweit: Gruene ~14 % (bundeswahlleiter.de)
- Polling-Fehlermargen Berliner Wahlen 2016–2023: +/-1,5–2,5 % (wahlrecht.de/umfragen)
Verdict: Hit
Die Grünen erzielten bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut offiziellem Ergebnis 14,3 % der Zweitstimmen (Quelle: wahlen-berlin.de, Wikipedia, PolitPro). Dies liegt klar über der Prognoseschwelle von 13,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit ein, obwohl die Grünen gegenüber 2023 (18,4 %) um 4,1 Prozentpunkte zulegten, aber die Tagesspiegel-Umfrage (16,0 %) leicht übertrafen. Den größten Stimmenanteil holte Die Linke mit 25,7 %, gefolgt von CDU (18,8 %) und AfD (16,3 %).
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