Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen receive more than 14.5% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls from September 4, 2026 (Ipsos/Tagesspiegel) show the Greens at 15–16% as the fourth-strongest party, behind CDU (19.8%), Linke (19.6%), and AfD (17.9%). SPD is already below the Greens at 13.1%. Berlin's Greens benefit from their stable voter base in urban West Berlin. A fall below 14.5% would only be possible with a significant vote shift toward Linke or SPD. BSW (3.6%) and FDP (3.3%) are below the 5% threshold. No Polymarket market known for this question.
Data basis for this prediction
- Ipsos/Tagesspiegel Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl-Umfrage 4. Sept 2026: Grüne 15–16 %, CDU 19,8 %, Linke 19,6 %, AfD 17,9 %, SPD 13,1 %
- t-online.de: 'Überraschung kurz vor Berlin-Wahl 2026', Sept 2026
- politpro.eu/de/berlin: Wahltrend Berlin September 2026
- wahlrecht.de: Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus Sonntagsfragen, September 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.