BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus (Berlin state election, September 20, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
BSW polls at 3.5-4.0% in all current Berlin surveys: PolitPro tracker (Sept 4, 2026) shows 3.8%, Infratest dimap likewise below 5%. Urban western-German Berlin lacks the structural base for a BSW late surge. No Polymarket market available; given the 1.2-1.5pp gap below the threshold, probability of failing the hurdle is estimated at ~79%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro.eu Berlin Wahltrend 4.9.2026: BSW 3,8 %
- dawum.de Berlin Sonntagsfrage: BSW unter 5 % (Stand 5.9.2026)
- ipsos.com/de-de: Umfrage Wahl Berlin 2026 — kein klarer Favorit, BSW marginal (September 2026)
- t-online.de: Wahlumfrage Berlin 2026 — BSW deutlich unter 5 %-Schwelle (5.9.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.