🏛️ Politics · Next Month

AfD becomes the strongest party (highest vote share) in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026, confirmed by the MV Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

73%

All current polls show AfD consistently at 35–37% as the leading party ahead of SPD (28–32%): Infratest dimap (September 3, 2026): AfD 35%, SPD 32%; Forsa (September 2, 2026): AfD 37%, SPD 28%; INSA (early September 2026): AfD 36%, SPD 29%. The gap is 5–9 percentage points. CDU (8–10%) is not a viable alternative winner. The Saxony-Anhalt comparison (AfD strongest party prediction was a miss as CDU won with 37.1%) counsels caution, but in MV there is no strong CDU alternative: CDU polls at only 8–10%, far from a surprise result. No Polymarket contract available; independent calibration 73%.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap: AfD 35 %, SPD 32 %, Linke 11 %, CDU 8 %, BSW 4 % (3. Sep 2026, t-online.de)
Forsa: AfD 37 %, SPD 28 %, CDU 10 %, BSW 4 %, Grüne 5 % (2. Sep 2026, wahlrecht.de)
INSA: AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, CDU 10 % (Anfang Sep 2026, politpro.eu)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 tatsächlich 38,2 % der Stimmen und wurde damit stärkste Partei vor der SPD (35,5 %). Das Ergebnis übertraf sogar die Umfragewerte (35–37 %) und bestätigte die Vorhersage klar. Quelle: bpb.de (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/landtagswahl-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2026-afd-staerkste-kraft-cdu-verfehlt-einzug-in-den-landtag/) und Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election).

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