🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke receives more than 18.0% of valid votes (confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

85%

The current PolitPro election trend (September 6, 2026) shows Die Linke at 20.0%; Forsa (t-online) at 22% and Infratest dimap (rbb) at 19%. All available polls are clearly above the 18% mark. Die Linke benefits from sustained dissatisfaction with CDU and SPD in Berlin and the focus on housing and social policy under top candidate Elif Eralp. Falling below 18% would require a simultaneous polling error of at least 1–4 points across all institutes – historically exceptional. No Polymarket market; estimate from polling consensus.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Berlin: Die Linke 20,0 % (6. September 2026)
Forsa / t-online: 'Neue Umfrage Berlin-Wahl 2026: Linke zieht davon' – Die Linke 22 % (September 2026)
Infratest dimap / rbb: CDU 21 %, Die Linke 19 % (September 2026)
dawum.de: Sonntagsfrage Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin – Wahltrend September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die Linke erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut Tagesspiegel und bpb.de 25,7 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 18,0 %. Die Partei wurde sogar erstmals stärkste Kraft in Berlin (CDU: 18,8 %, AfD: 16,3 %, Grüne: 14,3 %, SPD: 12,1 %). Die Vorhersage ist klar eingetreten; das Ergebnis übertraf sogar die optimistischsten Umfragewerte.

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