🏛️ Politics · Next Month

State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 20, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 65.0% (confirmed by State Returning Officer MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

78%

At the 2021 MV state election, voter turnout was 70.8% – the highest since 1998, well above 65%. The 2026 election is highly polarized: the AfD is polling as the strongest party at ~28% according to WahlForecast.de and Dawum.de, with the SPD at ~22%. Such a contest historically generates high mobilization both by AfD supporters and in counter-mobilization. Historically, turnout at state elections with clear anti-AfD mobilization dynamics (e.g., Saxony 2024: 74.4%) has been well above 65%. No prediction market found for turnout; probability based on historical data: 78%.

Data basis for this prediction

Statista: Wahlbeteiligung Landtagswahl MV 2021 – 70,8 % (Stand 7.9.2026)
WahlForecast.de: Landtagswahl MV 2026 – AfD ~28 %, SPD ~22 % (Stand 7.9.2026)
Dawum.de: MV Wahlumfragen 2026 – Aktuelle Sonntagsfragen (Stand 7.9.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Wahlbeteiligung bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 lag bei 78,1 % – deutlich über der vorhergesagten Schwelle von 65 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Die hohe Mobilisierung wurde durch das starke Abschneiden der AfD (38,2 %) und die intensive Gegenmobilisierung erklärt, was den historischen Trend bestätigte. Quelle: Wikipedia (2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election), wahlrecht.de, statistiken-aktuell.de.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026