📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
P&G reports on 29 July before market open. EPS consensus is ~USD 1.42, a conservative estimate reflecting FX and tariff headwinds vs. USD 1.48 in the prior year quarter (−4.1%). P&G beat consensus in over 90% of recent quarters through consistent pricing power (Pampers, Gillette, Tide, SK-II) and premium mix shift. Revenue consensus: ~USD 21.4B. Aggregate consumer staples beat rate in Q2/Q3 2026: ~70–72%. No specific Polymarket market for PG; implied 72%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Kalshi markets as of July 20, 2026 show a 64% probability for unchanged hold and 36% for a hike. Current effective fed funds rate is 3.62% (as of July 9, 2026). Core PCE inflation last at ~2.9% — too high for quick cuts, but a hike so soon after the cutting cycle would be unusual without a clear inflation resurgence signal. The Fed signaled caution at the June meeting.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Chipotle reports Q2 2026 results on July 29 after market close. Analyst consensus is $0.32 adjusted EPS (–3% YoY vs. $0.33 in Q2 2025) with a revenue consensus of $3.32B (+8.3% YoY). Chipotle has beaten or met Wall Street estimates in the past four quarters. UBS sees Chipotle positioned for a stronger second half, supported by improving sales trends and better spring foot traffic. No Polymarket market found. Beat probability based on track record and positive analyst positioning: ~62%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Meta has beaten EPS consensus for eight consecutive quarters. Current consensus is $7.18–7.32; BofA projects $7.50. Meta's Q2 revenue guidance of $58–61B was stated conservatively — a consistent Meta pattern. AI-driven ad revenue continues double-digit growth; the capex raise to $125–145B signals high management confidence. No specific Kalshi/Polymarket market exists for Meta EPS; beat probability is anchored to historical beat rate and analyst sentiment.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
ARM closed Q4 FY2026 with Non-GAAP EPS of $0.60—11.1% above the $0.54 consensus; FY2026 annual revenue $4.92B (+23% YoY). For Q1 FY2027, consensus EPS is approx. $0.40 and revenue $1.26B (~20% YoY growth). Drivers: AI data-centre licensing (+29% YoY in FY2026), AI-chip royalties more than doubled. ARM has beaten consensus for four consecutive quarters. 20 of 41 analysts recommend Buy. No direct Polymarket market found; 73% probability based on trend continuity. Risk: higher operating expenses (~$760M planned).
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Airbus delivered 351 commercial aircraft in H1 2026 (full-year target: 870) and maintained its guidance after a weak Q1. The H1 analyst call is scheduled for July 29, 2026, 19:30 CEST. The threshold (≥820 deliveries, ≥€7.0bn EBIT) is deliberately set below official guidance (870/€7.5bn) given the small but non-trivial risk of a downgrade driven by Pratt & Whitney engine supply constraints. No prediction market contract; own estimate: 72%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The FOMC meets July 28–29, 2026. The fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62%) after multiple cutting cycles. Polymarket shows 79% probability of no change. Core PCE is ~4.2%, but Chair Kevin Warsh has sent no explicit hike signals. Initial jobless claims for the week of July 18 hit a 57-year low (187k). Despite Polymarket pricing 36% odds of a 25bp hike, data supports another pause.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
CEO Brian Niccol has run the 'Back to Starbucks' turnaround since September 2024 (store optimisation, menu simplification, culture reset). The consensus of $0.66 implies +32% YoY growth. Starbucks has beaten the EPS consensus in four of the past five quarters (80% beat rate). Lower commodity prices (coffee) and early same-store-sales recovery in US core markets support a beat. No Polymarket quote; calibrated on historical beat pattern.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Consensus EPS per alphastreet.com: USD 7.23 (range: USD 5.76–8.55); revenue consensus USD 60.26 billion (+26.6% YoY). Meta has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 11 of the last 12 quarters. Ad business benefits from AI-driven targeting (Advantage+ tools) and sustained US demand strength. Llama monetization (API revenue) and Reality Labs losses are known, already priced-in factors. No explicit Polymarket market for this specific quarter; calibrated at 73% based on historical Meta beat rate (~85% of last 12 quarters), discounted for current macro environment.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Analyst consensus for Microsoft's Q4 FY2026 stands at USD 4.21–4.24 Non-GAAP EPS (+15.3% YoY). Microsoft has beaten estimates in four consecutive quarters. Azure growth expected above 33% (separate platform prediction), with Copilot Enterprise and GitHub subscriptions adding upside. No direct Polymarket data; historical beat track and sector momentum (Intel Q2 2026 beat by 100%, Amazon expectations also elevated) imply >80% hit probability.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
AstraZeneca has consistently beaten consensus expectations over the past six semi-annual and quarterly results, driven by oncology blockbusters (Tagrisso, Enhertu, Imfinzi) and the rare disease portfolio (Ultomiris, Soliris). FY2026 Core EPS growth of ≥10% YoY is company guidance. H1 2026 boosted by Farxiga launches in new indications and emerging market growth. No direct Polymarket data; historical beat probability >70% for AZ. Risks: FX pressure USD/GBP, generic competition for Tagrisso.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The Ifo Business Climate Index for June 2026 stood at 85.6 points. On July 24, the DAX rose by +1.36% to 25,099 points — led by an SAP share price jump (+10.07%) following strong quarterly results and positive signals from the IT sector. The ZEW and other leading indicators point to moderate sentiment improvement. No specific prediction market for this value. Cassandra.news estimates a 55% probability that the July reading reaches ≥86.0 points.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index for July 2026 on the last Tuesday of the month, July 28, 2026. Conflicting forces shape the picture: on one hand, the active US-Iran war (since July 2026) and stubborn inflation (US CPI 4.2% y/y); on the other, a still-solid labor market (unemployment rate 4.3%, 172,000 new jobs in May). The threshold of 95 points is deliberately below the long-term average (~100) but appropriately reflects geopolitical uncertainty. No Polymarket or Kalshi data available for this specific indicator; own assessment based on current macro data.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
RCL guided Q2 adjusted EPS at $4.00–4.10 vs. Zacks consensus of $3.97. When a company's own guidance sits materially above the sell-side figure, it almost always beats. Cruise booking volumes and yield trends remain strong. No prediction market contract found; RCL's historical beat rate is ~80–85%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Zacks consensus is a loss of $0.34 per share; Boeing management targets full-year 2026 FCF of $1–3bn and already delivered positive Q1 FCF. Revenue consensus is $24.05bn (+5.7% YoY). Sherwood News reports Boeing's 'second straight quarter of positive free cash flow' with revenue beating estimates — if confirmed for Q2, this implies a broader operational beat. No prediction market contract; own estimate ~58%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
PayPal reports July 28, 2026 after market close. Non-GAAP EPS consensus is approximately $1.35 (extrapolated from Q1 2026 Non-GAAP EPS of ~$1.33 with expected 2–3% sequential growth). PayPal has beaten adjusted EPS consensus for eight consecutive quarters; ongoing restructuring (profitable core focus, Venmo monetisation, branded checkout improvements) supports margins. Brent's sharp drop to $90 (−8% on July 27 after US-Iran de-escalation) is a tailwind for travel and commerce transactions. No dedicated Polymarket market; calibrated at 68% based on eight-quarter beat history.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Visa reports Q3 FY2026 (April–June) on 28 July after close. Zacks consensus: $3.23 EPS (+8.1% YoY), revenue consensus $11.35bn. Visa beat EPS consensus in each of the last 4 quarters, average positive surprise +3.2%. Analysts at Yahoo Finance/Zacks explicitly flagged Visa as 'poised to beat estimates again' (6 July 2026). Strong cross-border transaction volumes from continued travel boom and growing international payment flows support the outlook. No specific Polymarket market for this event.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Hilton reports Q2 2026 on 28 July. Zacks consensus: $2.28 EPS (+3.6% YoY; revised up from $2.27 in last 7 days), revenue consensus $3.36bn (+7.2% YoY). Hilton has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last 4 quarters – 100% beat rate – with an average positive surprise of 4.6%. Global travel demand remains robust; RevPAR continues to trend upward. No specific Polymarket market; own estimate based on historical beat rate.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
UPS reports Q2 2026 before market open on 28 July. Consensus (24 analysts, alphastreet): $1.65–1.66 EPS (+6.5% YoY), revenue consensus $21.75bn (+2.5% YoY). UPS beat consensus in 3 of the last 4 quarters (75% beat rate) with an average positive surprise of +10.6%. Headwinds: extensive restructuring (headcount reductions, network optimisation, Amazon volume reduction) and softer US industrial parcel volume growth. No Polymarket market found; own estimate balancing beat rate vs. restructuring risks ~60%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
UPS reports on July 28 before market open. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of ~$1.65 (YoY +6.5% vs. $1.55 in Q2 2025). The macro backdrop supports: FactSet records S&P 500 Q2 2026 earnings growth of 23.6% — the second straight quarter above 20%. UPS benefits from e-commerce volumes and structurally improved utilization after renegotiating the USPS contract. Historical beat rate ~65%. No Polymarket anchor; calibrated on sector trend and historical hit rate.