📈 Economy · Next Week

US Federal Reserve (FOMC) keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

63%

Kalshi markets as of July 20, 2026 show a 64% probability for unchanged hold and 36% for a hike. Current effective fed funds rate is 3.62% (as of July 9, 2026). Core PCE inflation last at ~2.9% — too high for quick cuts, but a hike so soon after the cutting cycle would be unusual without a clear inflation resurgence signal. The Fed signaled caution at the June meeting.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi: 36 % Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit für FOMC-Meeting 29. Juli 2026 (Stand 20.07.2026, via CNBC)
CNBC: 'A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising' (13. Juli 2026)
FRED/CNBC: Aktueller Fed Funds Rate effektiv 3,62 %, Zielband 3,50–3,75 % (Stand 9. Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Fed hielt den Leitzins am 29. Juli 2026 exakt im vorhergesagten Band von 3,50–3,75 % (Abstimmung 9:3). Drei regionale Fed-Präsidenten (Hammack/Cleveland, Kashkari/Minneapolis, Logan/Dallas) stimmten für eine Erhöhung – dies spiegelt genau das 36-%-Szenario für eine Anhebung wider, das die Kalshi-Märkte eingepreist hatten. Die Mehrheit folgte dem 'Hold'-Szenario (64 % Kalshi-Wahrscheinlichkeit), weil trotz hartnäckig erhöhter Inflation (über 2 % seit mehr als fünf Jahren) keine ausreichende Mehrheit für einen aktiven Zinsschritt zustande kam. Quellen: federalreserve.gov (monetary20260729a.htm), CNBC ('Divided Fed holds interest rates steady', 29. Juli 2026), NPR ('A divided Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady', 29. Juli 2026).

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