📈 Economy · Next Week

Fed holds interest rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

79%

The FOMC meets July 28–29, 2026. The fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62%) after multiple cutting cycles. Polymarket shows 79% probability of no change. Core PCE is ~4.2%, but Chair Kevin Warsh has sent no explicit hike signals. Initial jobless claims for the week of July 18 hit a 57-year low (187k). Despite Polymarket pricing 36% odds of a 25bp hike, data supports another pause.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket Fed-Decision July 2026: 79 % No Change (Stand 25.07.2026)
Fed-Leitzins: 3,50–3,75 % effektiv (FRED/CNBC, Stand 09.07.2026)
US Core PCE: ca. 4,2 % auf Jahresbasis (BEA, Stand Juli 2026)
US Initial Jobless Claims Woche 18. Juli 2026: 187k – 57-Jahres-Tief (BLS)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Die Fed hat den Leitzins am 29. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % belassen – zum fünften Mal in Folge. Das FOMC stimmte 9:3 für eine Beibehaltung; drei Mitglieder (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) votierten für eine Anhebung um 25 Bp, setzten sich aber nicht durch. Damit trat die Vorhersage exakt ein. Quellen: Federal Reserve Pressemitteilung (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html), CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-07-29-26).

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