Fed holds interest rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The FOMC meets July 28–29, 2026. The fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62%) after multiple cutting cycles. Polymarket shows 79% probability of no change. Core PCE is ~4.2%, but Chair Kevin Warsh has sent no explicit hike signals. Initial jobless claims for the week of July 18 hit a 57-year low (187k). Despite Polymarket pricing 36% odds of a 25bp hike, data supports another pause.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket Fed-Decision July 2026: 79 % No Change (Stand 25.07.2026)
- Fed-Leitzins: 3,50–3,75 % effektiv (FRED/CNBC, Stand 09.07.2026)
- US Core PCE: ca. 4,2 % auf Jahresbasis (BEA, Stand Juli 2026)
- US Initial Jobless Claims Woche 18. Juli 2026: 187k – 57-Jahres-Tief (BLS)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Fed hat den Leitzins am 29. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % belassen – zum fünften Mal in Folge. Das FOMC stimmte 9:3 für eine Beibehaltung; drei Mitglieder (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) votierten für eine Anhebung um 25 Bp, setzten sich aber nicht durch. Damit trat die Vorhersage exakt ein. Quellen: Federal Reserve Pressemitteilung (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html), CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-07-29-26).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.