📈 Economy · Next Month

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $7.20 per share (29 July 2026, after market close)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 29. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

74%

Meta has beaten EPS consensus for eight consecutive quarters. Current consensus is $7.18–7.32; BofA projects $7.50. Meta's Q2 revenue guidance of $58–61B was stated conservatively — a consistent Meta pattern. AI-driven ad revenue continues double-digit growth; the capex raise to $125–145B signals high management confidence. No specific Kalshi/Polymarket market exists for Meta EPS; beat probability is anchored to historical beat rate and analyst sentiment.

Data basis for this prediction

Finance Calendar / Yahoo Finance: META Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens 7,18–7,32 USD, Bericht 29. Juli 2026
BofA-Schätzung Juli 2026: 7,50 USD EPS, 60,6 Mrd. USD Umsatz
Meta Q1 2026 Earnings: 8+ Quartale EPS-Beat-Streak; Capex-Guidance auf 125–145 Mrd. USD angehoben

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Meta berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 einen tatsächlichen EPS von ca. 6,18 USD – etwa 14 % unter dem Konsensus von ~7,17–7,22 USD und weit unter dem prognostizierten Wert von >7,20 USD. Die acht Quartale andauernde EPS-Beat-Serie brach damit ab. Hauptursachen: 2,4 Mrd. USD Rückstellungen für Rechtsstreitigkeiten sowie 1,18 Mrd. USD Abfindungskosten aus dem Stellenabbau im Mai 2026 drückten die operative Marge von 43 % (Vorjahr) auf 31 %. Der Umsatz von 60,8 Mrd. USD übertraf mit +28 % YoY zwar die Erwartungen (~60,2 Mrd.), konnte den Gewinneinbruch aber nicht kompensieren. Quellen: Meta Investor Relations Pressemitteilung (investor.atmeta.com), SEC-Filing (sec.gov), 247wallst.com, Investing.com.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 7,500 on Friday, 13 November 2026 (confirmed via NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 14 November 2026, 10:00 ET)

The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

62%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Consumer Price Index (headline CPI) for October 2026 exceeds 3.7 percent year-on-year — BLS release November 10, 2026, 8:30 AM ET (confirmed by BLS or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.

65%

Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Gold (XAU/USD Spot) closes above $4,400 per ounce on 31 December 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Kitco by 1 January 2027)

Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.

32%

Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026