📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The Fed has held at 3.50–3.75% for at least four consecutive meetings (fedratecalc.com, July 2026). Under hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the core PCE projection was raised to 3.6% (from 2.7%). Bank of America forecasts three hikes in 2026: September, October, and December (Bloomberg/Intellectia.ai, July 2026). Market-implied probability of a hike at the July 2026 meeting is 25–30% (fedratecalc.com); the September probability is higher, as the 29 July FOMC statement is expected to signal autumn intentions. S&P 500 at 7,505 (+18.95% YTD) and a robust labour market give the committee room to act. No Polymarket market for the Sep-26 hike; own calibration 42%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
fxleaders.com reported July 24, 2026: 'September Hike Odds Jump to 80%' — triggered by Brent ~$100, rising US Treasury yields, elevated inflation expectations. Polymarket already shows 25% chance of July hike; if July holds (74–81%), September pressure rises sharply. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is seen as inflation-sensitive hawk; Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) will likely serve as signaling platform (see open prediction). Market-implied September hike probability: ~75–80% — applied here with slight discount: 73%.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a 57% probability for a 25 bp Fed rate hike to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026; SOFR futures imply only 32% – high surprise potential. The DAX was trading at ~26,000 points on September 9, 2026 (Convex/Investing.com). A decline of ~2% – historically typical after an unexpected Fed hike amid high oil prices ($97/barrel Brent) and an ongoing Iran crisis – would push the index to ~25,480, below 25,500. Rate-sensitive DAX sectors (technology, real estate, autos) react most strongly to hawkish Fed surprises. This prediction does not contradict open DAX forecasts for September 11–12 (different dates).
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
EUR/USD closed at 1.1638 on September 10, 2026. Polymarket sees a 56% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike on September 16; Kalshi shows 58%. A rate hike — even an expected one — should temporarily strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD below 1.15. With no hike, EUR/USD would likely stay stable or rise. Combined probability: 56% × 55% (EUR/USD drops below 1.15 on hike) + 44% × 15% (drops on pause) ≈ 37–42%. Calibrated at 40%; the open prediction 'EUR/USD > 1.1500 on September 30' is not contradicted — recovery is possible.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,591 on 10 September 2026 (-0.59%), weighed by high oil prices (Brent $105.71) and US-Iran tensions. The probability of a 25bp FOMC rate hike on 16 September stands at 62% (CME FedWatch), Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% – largely priced in. Historically, markets react more moderately to anticipated rate moves than to surprises. The 7,500 threshold equals a 1.2% drop over seven trading days – unlikely from an anticipated hike alone. Main risk: hawkish FOMC statement or acute Gulf escalation.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The US 10-year yield closed at 4.97% on September 11, 2026 — driven by headline PPI for August at +5.4% YoY (BLS, September 10) and accelerating CPI. Polymarket prices a 53% probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16. Even in the no-hike scenario (47%), yields would need to fall more than 17 basis points to close below 4.80% — historically unlikely absent a sharp risk-off shock. An actual hike would push yields higher still.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.95–4.96% on September 11, 2026 — at the cusp of the psychologically pivotal 5% level. Polymarket/defirate.com aggregate a 78–81% probability of a 25bp FOMC hike on September 16 (CME FedWatch: 60–64%). A hike would almost certainly push the yield above 5.00% the following trading day; even a hold in hawkish language — Fed Chair Warsh's posture since his August 2026 Jackson Hole speech — sustains upward pressure. The existing Cassandra prediction of 'above 4.80% on Sept 17' is a lower threshold and is not duplicated here.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
NVDA closed at $220.21 on 11 September 2026 (+0.82%). The S&P 500 gained +0.94% on the same day, ending a four-session losing streak. For a close above $225 on 17 September (~2.2% required), a potential market relief rally post-FOMC on 16 September supports the case (expected +25bps; a 'dovish hike' framing typically benefits growth equities). Headwinds: US 10Y yield at 4.97% and persistent inflation (August 2026 CPI >3.4%). No Polymarket data found; calibrated probability: ~52%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Gold is trading at approximately 4,347–4,362 USD/oz on September 11-12, 2026 — already weaker than expected (4,450 target for September 12 clearly missed). Polymarket/Kalshi imply >70% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike on September 16 (to 3.75–4.00%). Historically, a Fed hike strengthens the USD short-term and weighs on gold. A decline from ~4,355 to below 4,300 represents -1.3% within two trading days post-FOMC — plausible, but partly priced in.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
CME FedWatch (Sept 11, 2026): ~65% for 25bp hike; Polymarket sees 82%, Kalshi 57%. Weighted average ~70%. ECB also hiked to 2.50% on Sept 16. Existing October and December FOMC predictions implicitly assume a September hike. Main downside risk: surprise economic deterioration.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The S&P 500 stands at ~7,726.56 on 12 September 2026 (prior close: 7,656.98). Polymarket prices an 79% chance of a 25bp Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% on 17 September. A fully anticipated move typically causes no severe sell-off; falling below 7,580 would require a ~1.9% drop over four trading days — unlikely given the high degree of pre-pricing. No direct Polymarket market for this index level; calibrated on current level and implicit FOMC pricing.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
Polymarket sees 97% probability WTI reaches 100 USD in 2026. The open Brent prediction (>100 USD on September 19) is consistent: WTI typically trades USD 3–5 below Brent, implying 95–97 USD around September 17. Supportive factors: Iran tensions (IAEA emergency session expected by September 19), OPEC+ production discipline, strong global demand. Downside risk: abrupt diplomatic breakthrough or surprise OPEC+ output increase.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The MPC meets on September 17, 2026. The current base rate is 3.75%, implied by the open Cassandra prediction of a BoE hike to 4.00% only on November 5, 2026. The ECB raised to 2.65% in September 2026; the FOMC decides on September 16–17 with 59% probability (Fed Funds futures, September 13, 2026) to hike to 3.75–4.00%. The MPC historically follows Fed cycles with a lag and favors a data-dependent pause given subdued UK growth (BoE forecast: 0.9% for 2026). The September decision is accompanied by the August Monetary Policy Report, which already signaled a more moderate tone. No Polymarket market found; own estimate: 65%.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1568 on 14 September 2026. Polymarket gives 79% probability for a 25bp FOMC hike on 16 September to 3.75–4.00%. Even though much is priced in, an actual hike combined with hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh (Jackson Hole speech August 2026) should further strengthen the USD. A decline from 1.1568 to below 1.1450 represents approx. –1.0%, historically plausible as a day-of reaction to a hawkish surprise component. No direct Polymarket signal found for EUR/USD on 17 Sept.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at USD 63.22 on 14 Sep 2026, already down ~5.2% from the September high of USD 66.67 (04 Sep), driven by rising rate-hike expectations. CME FedWatch implies ~87% probability of a +25bp Fed hike on 16 September (confirmed by an open platform prediction). A stronger USD following the FOMC decision puts double pressure on silver as a zero-yielding, industrially sensitive metal. Technically, FXStreet places support at USD 62.50–63.50; a break below triggers stop-loss selling. The gold/silver ratio currently stands at 67.8 (4,284/63.22) — under a hawkish Fed it can push to 68.5+, implying silver below USD 62.50 if gold holds near USD 4,285. No dedicated silver futures market found on Polymarket.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The United Kingdom structurally runs higher consumer price inflation than the Eurozone. While Eurozone July 2026 HICP stands at +2.9%, UK CPI has persistently exceeded the 3.0% mark — driven by sustained high services prices (historically >5% YoY), public sector wage settlements, and persistent Brexit trade effects. The Bank of England has consequently held its policy rate at an elevated level. A drop below 3.0% for August would require a significant softening of the services component, without clear macro drivers for such a move.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The TCMB has been in an aggressive rate-cutting cycle since late 2024; current policy rate: 37% (August 2026). Annual Turkish inflation fell to 31.7% in July 2026 (from 32.1% in June). The central bank forecasts 28% year-end 2026 inflation; markets price 29%. A 200 bp cut to 35% in September would be consistent with the year-to-date pace and declining real-rate levels. No Polymarket market; economist consensus clearly favours continued cuts.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The BoE held the Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026 with a 6:3 vote. The three dissenters (Pill, Greene, Mann) called for +25 bp. UK inflation rose from 2.6% (June) to 2.9% (July 2026), fuelled by the energy price shock from the Middle East crisis. OIS markets (as at 17 August 2026) price a 72% probability of no change on 17 September; a second model shows 76%. Base case: the hawkish minority stays outvoted; any decline in August core CPI (due ~16 September) would ease pressure. Central risk: a third MPC defector to the hike side would flip the majority.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Bitcoin was trading at approximately USD 77,664 on 14 September 2026 (Fortune/Yahoo Finance). Markets price a 25 bp Fed hike on 16 September at 86.5% (Kalshi/Polymarket). Despite the move being largely priced in, a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh combined with lingering AI-safety fears (Anthropic CEO comments drove Nasdaq 100 down 1.7% on 14 Sept) could briefly push BTC below 75,000. Required decline: ~3.4%. Calibrated below implied market level as a 'buy-the-news' rally may cushion losses; no contradiction with the existing BTC >88,000 prediction for 31 Oct.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
Solana traded at $102.07–102.30 on September 15, 2026 (CoinGecko: $102.30; OKX: $102.07). FOMC decides on September 16: FedRateCalc shows 91% probability of a 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% (current rate: 3.50-3.75%; Chair: Warsh). Rate hikes typically weigh on speculative assets like altcoins. A close below $95 requires a ~7% drop – possible on a hawkish dot-plot or 50bp surprise, but unlikely if the 25bp hike is fully priced in. Polymarket has no specific SOL market for September 17. Risk asymmetry: hike priced in → buy-the-news bounce more likely than a sharp selloff.