ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM) beats Q1 FY2027 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $0.40 per share (July 29, 2026, after market close)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ARM closed Q4 FY2026 with Non-GAAP EPS of $0.60—11.1% above the $0.54 consensus; FY2026 annual revenue $4.92B (+23% YoY). For Q1 FY2027, consensus EPS is approx. $0.40 and revenue $1.26B (~20% YoY growth). Drivers: AI data-centre licensing (+29% YoY in FY2026), AI-chip royalties more than doubled. ARM has beaten consensus for four consecutive quarters. 20 of 41 analysts recommend Buy. No direct Polymarket market found; 73% probability based on trend continuity. Risk: higher operating expenses (~$760M planned).
Data basis for this prediction
- Intellectia.ai – ARM Holdings Q1 FY2027 Earnings Report Date: 29. Juli 2026 (Stand Juli 2026)
- TIKR.com – ARM Holdings reports earnings July 29, 2026: Revenue-Konsens $1,26 Mrd., EPS $0,40 (Stand Juli 2026)
- Yahoo Finance / ARM Q4 FY2026 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS $0,60 vs. Konsens $0,54, +11 % Beat (Mai 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
ARM Holdings berichtete am 29. Juli 2026 für Q1 FY2027 einen Non-GAAP-EPS von 0,45 USD – deutlich über dem Konsens von ~0,40 USD (Analysten erwarteten lt. Quellen 0,4055 USD). Treiber: Royalty-Einnahmen +22 % YoY auf 715 Mio. USD (Rechenzentrum-Royalties mehr als verdoppelt), Lizenzeinnahmen +23 % auf 574 Mio. USD. Gesamtumsatz: 1,29 Mrd. USD (+22 % YoY), ebenfalls über Konsens (1,274 Mrd. USD). Non-GAAP-Betriebsmarge: 41,2 %. Quellen: Arm Newsroom (https://newsroom.arm.com/news/arm-q1-fye27-results), Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/arm-holdings-q1-fy2027-earnings-125346628.html), SEC Form 6-K (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001973239/000197323926000113/exhibit991fye27q130-junx26.htm).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.